# Royal Statistical Society

# Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A

Phone: -44-171-638-8998

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**Current editor:**L. Sharples

Additional information is available for the following
registered editor(s): Arnaud Chevalier
Antony Fielding
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**Series handle:**repec:bla:jorssa

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### 2016, Volume 179, Issue 2

**319-376 Perils and potentials of self-selected entry to epidemiological studies and surveys***by*Niels Keiding & Thomas A. Louis**377-402 Multivariate state space approach to variance reduction in series with level and variance breaks due to survey redesigns***by*Oksana Bollineni-Balabay & Jan Brakel & Franz Palm**403-425 Mixed frequency structural vector auto-regressive models***by*Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino**427-452 Longitudinal analysis of the strengths and difficulties questionnaire scores of the Millennium Cohort Study children in England using M-quantile random-effects regression***by*Nikos Tzavidis & Nicola Salvati & Timo Schmid & Eirini Flouri & Emily Midouhas**453-479 Semiparametric small area estimation for binary outcomes with application to unemployment estimation for local authorities in the UK***by*Ray Chambers & Nicola Salvati & Nikos Tzavidis**481-511 What matters in differences between life trajectories: a comparative review of sequence dissimilarity measures***by*Matthias Studer & Gilbert Ritschard**513-533 Beyond completion rate: evaluating the passing ability of footballers***by*Łukasz Szczepański & Ian McHale**535-558 Persistent poverty and children's cognitive development: evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study***by*Andrew Dickerson & Gurleen K. Popli**559-581 Survey instruments and the reports of consumption expenditures: evidence from the consumer expenditure surveys***by*Erich Battistin & Mario Padula**583-605 Determining the effect of strategic voting on election results***by*Michael Herrmann & Simon Munzert & Peter Selb**607-628 Consequences of measurement error for inference in cross-lagged panel design—the example of the reciprocal causal relationship between subjective health and socio-economic status***by*Hannes Kröger & Rasmus Hoffmann & Eduwin Pakpahan

### 2016, Volume 179, Issue 1

**1-63 Statistical modelling of citation exchange between statistics journals***by*Cristiano Varin & Manuela Cattelan & David Firth**65-102 Forecasting distributions of inflation rates: the functional auto-regressive approach***by*Kausik Chaudhuri & Minjoo Kim & Yongcheol Shin**103-131 A hierarchical latent class model for predicting disability small area counts from survey data***by*Enrico Fabrizi & Giorgio E. Montanari & M. Giovanna Ranalli**133-152 Detecting discrimination: a dynamic perspective***by*Konstantinos Tzioumis**153-175 Analysing behavioural risk factor surveillance data by using spatially and temporally varying coefficient models***by*Shireen Assaf & Stefano Campostrini & Fang Xu & Carol Gotway Crawford**177-202 A Bayesian quantile regression model for insurance company costs data***by*Karthik Sriram & Peng Shi & Pulak Ghosh**203-228 Subjective wellbeing: why weather matters***by*John Feddersen & Robert Metcalfe & Mark Wooden**229-250 Small area estimation to quantify discontinuities in repeated sample surveys***by*Jan A. Brakel & Bart Buelens & Harm-Jan Boonstra**251-272 A simple variance estimator of change for rotating repeated surveys: an application to the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions household surveys***by*Y. G. Berger & R. Priam**273-292 Police and thieves in the stadium: measuring the (multiple) effects of football matches on crime***by*Olivier Marie**293-310 Spatially modelling the association between access to recreational facilities and exercise: the ‘Multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis’***by*Samuel I. Berchuck & Joshua L. Warren & Amy H. Herring & Kelly R. Evenson & Kari A. B. Moore & Yamini K. Ranchod & Ana V. Diez-Roux**311-318 Obituaries***by*Julian Champkin & Lord Layard & Steven Gilmour

### 2015, Volume 178, Issue 4

**787-790 Editorial: Big data in social research***by*Natalie Shlomo & Harvey Goldstein**793-813 Statistics: a data science for the 21st century***by*Peter J. Diggle**815-836 Do household surveys give a coherent view of disability benefit targeting?: a multisurvey latent variable analysis for the older population in Great Britain***by*Ruth Hancock & Marcello Morciano & Stephen Pudney & Francesca Zantomio**837-862 Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility***by*Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino**863-881 The relationship between education and fertility in the presence of a time varying frailty component***by*Anna Gottard & Alessandra Mattei & Daniele Vignoli**883-902 Gender and risk taking: evidence from jumping competitions***by*René Böheim & Mario Lackner**903-923 A joint model of persistent human papilloma virus infection and cervical cancer risk: implications for cervical cancer screening***by*Hormuzd A. Katki & Li C. Cheung & Barbara Fetterman & Philip E. Castle & Rajeshwari Sundaram**925-944 Adjusting for selection bias in assessing the relationship between sibship size and cognitive performance***by*Gebrenegus Ghilagaber & Linda Wänström**945-961 Selection error in single- and mixed mode surveys of the Dutch general population***by*Thomas Klausch & Joop Hox & Barry Schouten**963-975 A new method for protecting interrelated time series with Bayesian prior distributions and synthetic data***by*Matthew J. Schneider & John M. Abowd**977-1007 Bayesian reconstruction of two-sex populations by age: estimating sex ratios at birth and sex ratios of mortality***by*Mark C. Wheldon & Adrian E. Raftery & Samuel J. Clark & Patrick Gerland**1009-1023 Bayesian hierarchical models for smoothing in two-phase studies, with application to small area estimation***by*Michelle Ross & Jon Wakefield**1025-1049 Ranking scientific journals via latent class models for polytomous item response data***by*Francesco Bartolucci & Valentino Dardanoni & Franco Peracchi**1051-1067 Deriving small area estimates from information technology business surveys***by*A. F. Militino & M. D. Ugarte & T. Goicoa**1069-1091 A Bayesian framework for estimating disease risk due to exposure to uranium mine and mill waste on the Navajo Nation***by*Lauren Hund & Edward J. Bedrick & Curtis Miller & Gabriel Huerta & Teddy Nez & Sandy Ramone & Chris Shuey & Miranda Cajero & Johnnye Lewis**1093-1096 Obituaries***by*Martha K. Smith & Stuart Reid & Max Murray & Crawford Revie**1098-1098 Using R for Numerical Analysis in Science and Engineering V. A. Bloomfield 2014 Boca Raton CRC Press xxxiv + 336 pp., $57.99 ISBN 978-1-439-88448-5***by*Andrey Kostenko**1099-1099 Analyzing Baseball Data with R M. Marchi and J. Albert 2013 Boca Raton Chapman and Hall–CRC 334 pp., $26.99 ISBN 978-1-466-57022-1***by*Philip Pallmann**1100-1101 Bayesian and Frequentist Regression Methods J. Wakefield 2013 720 pp., £62.99 Springer, New York ISBN 978-1-441-90924-4***by*Jonathan Gillard**1099-1100 Simulating Nature: a Philosophical Study of Computer-simulation Uncertainties and Their Role in Climate Science and Policy Advice 2nd edn A. C. Petersen 2012 Boca Raton Chapman and Hall–CRC xvi+ 224 pp., £41.99 ISBN 978-1-466-50062-4***by*Umut Okkan & Guül nan**1098-1099 Modeling Count Data J. M. Hilbe Cambridge Cambridge University Press xvi + 284 pp., $99.00 (hardbound), $37.99 (paperbound) ISBN 978-1-107-02833-3 (hardbound), 978-1-107-61125-2 (paperbound)***by*Anoop Chaturvedi

### 2015, Volume 178, Issue 3

**493-533 Classical time varying factor-augmented vector auto-regressive models—estimation, forecasting and structural analysis***by*Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino**535-565 Small area estimation of labour force indicators under a multinomial model with correlated time and area effects***by*Esther López-Vizcaíno & María José Lombardía & Domingo Morales**567-591 Prediction of patient-reported outcome measures via multivariate ordered probit models***by*Caterina Conigliani & Andrea Manca & Andrea Tancredi**593-618 Profile identification via weighted related metric scaling: an application to dependent Spanish children***by*Irene Albarrán & Pablo Alonso & Aurea Grané**619-639 Network model-assisted inference from respondent-driven sampling data***by*Krista J. Gile & Mark S. Handcock**641-658 Mapping the spatial distribution of a disease-transmitting insect in the presence of surveillance error and missing data***by*Andrew E. Hong & Corentin M. Barbu & Dylan S. Small & Michael Z. Levy & the Chagas Disease Working Group in Arequipa**659-683 Joint modelling of goals and bookings in association football***by*A. C. Titman & D. A. Costain & P. G. Ridall & K. Gregory**685-703 Consistent estimation of the fixed effects ordered logit model***by*Gregori Baetschmann & Kevin E. Staub & Rainer Winkelmann**705-723 Multilevel multivariate modelling of legislative count data, with a hidden Markov chain***by*Francesco Lagona & Antonello Maruotti & Fabio Padovano**725-739 Bayesian estimation of long-term health consequences for obese and normal-weight elderly people***by*Hyokyoung Grace Hong & Yu Yue & Pulak Ghosh**741-755 Home bias in officiating: evidence from international cricket***by*Abhinav Sacheti & Ian Gregory-Smith & David Paton**757-778 From sample average treatment effect to population average treatment effect on the treated: combining experimental with observational studies to estimate population treatment effects***by*Erin Hartman & Richard Grieve & Roland Ramsahai & Jasjeet S. Sekhon**779-780 Obituary: A. H. Halsey, FBA***by*Anthony Heath**782-783 Computational Actuarial Science with R A. Charpentier ed 2015 Boca Raton CRC Press xxxii + 618 pp., $73.79 ISBN 978-1-466-59259-9***by*Andrey Kostenko**783-784 Analysis of Multivariate and High Dimensional Data I. Koch 2013 Cambridge Cambridge University Press 526 pp., £55.00 ISBN 978-0-521-88793-9***by*Shalabh**784-784 Statistics for People Who (Think They) Hate Statistics N. J. Salkind 2014 New York Sage 484 pp., £50.00 ISBN 978-1-452-27771-4***by*Nathan Green**785-785 Bayes’ Rule: a Tutorial Introduction to Bayesian Analysis J. V. Stone 2013 Sebtel 260 pp., £19.95 ISBN 978-0-956-37284-0***by*Claire Keeble**785-785 Sequential Analysis: Hypothesis Testing and Changepoint Detection A. Tartakovsky I. Nikiforov M. Basseville 2014 Boca Raton Chapman and Hall–CRC 604 pp., £63.99 ISBN 978-1-439-83820-4***by*Jonathan Gillard

### 2015, Volume 178, Issue 2

**303-336 Is the Carli index flawed?: assessing the case for the new retail price index RPIJ***by*Peter Levell**337-361 Private information in healthcare utilization: specification of a copula-based hurdle model***by*Peng Shi & Wei Zhang**363-382 A log-linear modelling approach to assessing the consistency of ego reports of dyadic outcomes with applications to fertility and sexual partnerships***by*Ryan Admiraal & Mark S. Handcock**383-403 Analysis of income inequality measures on human immunodeficiency virus mortality: a spatiotemporal Bayesian perspective***by*Tevfik Aktekin & Muzaffer Musal**405-424 A multilevel modelling approach to measuring changing patterns of ethnic composition and segregation among London secondary schools, 2001–2010***by*George Leckie & Harvey Goldstein**425-443 Estimating the health benefit of reducing indoor air pollution in a randomized environmental intervention***by*Roger D. Peng & Arlene M. Butz & Amber J. Hackstadt & D'Ann L. Williams & Gregory B. Diette & Patrick N. Breysse & Elizabeth C. Matsui**445-464 Combining data from multiple spatially referenced prevalence surveys using generalized linear geostatistical models***by*Emanuele Giorgi & Sanie S. S. Sesay & Dianne J. Terlouw & Peter J. Diggle**465-480 Partially supervised spatiotemporal clustering for burglary crime series identification***by*Brian J. Reich & Michael D. Porter**481-492 Time varying ratings in association football: the all-time greatest team is.***by*Rose D. Baker & Ian G. McHale

### 2015, Volume 178, Issue 1

**1-28 Hierarchical models for estimating state and demographic trends in US death penalty public opinion***by*Kenneth E. Shirley & Andrew Gelman**29-55 Inference and forecasting in the age–period–cohort model with unknown exposure with an application to mesothelioma mortality***by*María Dolores Martínez Miranda & Bent Nielsen & Jens Perch Nielsen**57-82 Unrestricted mixed data sampling (MIDAS): MIDAS regressions with unrestricted lag polynomials***by*Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher**83-99 Interviewer effects on non-response propensity in longitudinal surveys: a multilevel modelling approach***by*Rebecca Vassallo & Gabriele B. Durrant & Peter W. F. Smith & Harvey Goldstein**101-124 Broader health coverage is good for the nation's health: evidence from country level panel data***by*Rodrigo Moreno-Serra & Peter C. Smith**125-146 Local cost surface models of distance decay for the analysis of gridded population data***by*Christopher D. Lloyd**147-166 Diffusion of innovations in dynamic networks***by*Charlotte C. Greenan**167-186 A dynamic bivariate Poisson model for analysing and forecasting match results in the English Premier League***by*Siem Jan Koopman & Rutger Lit**187-203 Fitting age-specific fertility rates by a flexible generalized skew normal probability density function***by*Stefano Mazzuco & Bruno Scarpa**205-222 Modelling reporting delays for outbreak detection in infectious disease data***by*Angela Noufaily & Yonas Ghebremichael-Weldeselassie & Doyo Gragn Enki & Paul Garthwaite & Nick Andrews & André Charlett & Paddy Farrington**223-239 Enhancing a geographic regression discontinuity design through matching to estimate the effect of ballot initiatives on voter turnout***by*Luke Keele & Rocío Titiunik & José R. Zubizarreta**241-269 Diagnostics for respondent-driven sampling***by*Krista J. Gile & Lisa G. Johnston & Matthew J. Salganik**271-296 Bayesian inference for transportation origin–destination matrices: the Poisson–inverse Gaussian and other Poisson mixtures***by*Konstantinos Perrakis & Dimitris Karlis & Mario Cools & Davy Janssens**301-301 Bayesian Data Analysis 3rd edn A. Gelman , J. B. Carlin , H. S. Stern , D. B. Dunson , A. Vehtari and D. B. Rubin , 2013 Boca Raton , Chapman and Hall–CRC 676 pp., £44.99 ISBN 1-439-84095-4***by*Paul Hewson**302-302 Understanding Advanced Statistical Methods P. Westfall and K. S. S. Henning , 2013 Boca Raton , Chapman and Hall–CRC 570 pp., £44.99 ISBN 978-1-466-51210-8***by*Irene Kaimi**301-302 Statistics Topics S. Mehta , 2014 CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform 160 pp., £4.50 ISBN 978-1-499-27353-3***by*Mark Pilling

### 2014, Volume 177, Issue 4

**755-756 Editorial: Educational and health inequalities***by*Anna Vignoles & Arnaud Chevalier**757-782 A decomposition analysis of the relationship between parental income and multiple child outcomes***by*Elizabeth Washbrook & Paul Gregg & Carol Propper**783-806 Socio-economic inequalities in bodily pain over the life cycle: longitudinal evidence from Australia, Britain and Germany***by*Stefanie Schurer & Michael A. Shields & Andrew M. Jones**807-827 The income gradient in childhood mental health: all in the eye of the beholder?***by*David W. Johnston & Carol Propper & Stephen E. Pudney & Michael A. Shields**829-860 The drivers of month-of-birth differences in children's cognitive and non-cognitive skills***by*Claire Crawford & Lorraine Dearden & Ellen Greaves**861-892 Variation of learning intensity in late adolescence and the effect on personality traits***by*Hendrik Thiel & Stephan L. Thomsen & Bettina Büttner**981-985 Reaction to ‘An approach to perform expert elicitation for engineering design risk analysis: methodology and experimental results’***by*T. Ganguly & K. J. Wilson & J. Quigley & R. M. Cooke & Alessandra Babuscia & Kar-Ming Cheung**987-988 Obituary: David Charles Lynn Wroe***by*John Kidgell**989-989 An Introduction to Quantitative Finance S. Blyth , 2014 Oxford University Press 170 pp., £ 19.99 ISBN 978-0-199-66659-1***by*Sebastian Dietz**990-990 SPSS for Applied Sciences: Basic Statistical Testing C. Davis , 2013 Collingwood , CSIRO Publishing vi + 176 pp., AU $29.95 ISBN 978-0-643-10710-6***by*Kuldeep Kumar

### 2014, Volume 177, Issue 3

**569-586 Florence Nightingale, statistics and the Crimean War***by*Lynn McDonald**587-606 Using panel data for partial identification of human immunodeficiency virus prevalence when infection status is missing not at random***by*Bruno Arpino & Elisabetta De Cao & Franco Peracchi**607-623 Modelling spatial variability in concentrations of single pollutants and composite air quality indicators in health effects studies***by*Helen Powell & Duncan Lee**625-642 Review of methodological issues in cost-effectiveness analyses relating to injecting drug users, and case-study illustrations***by*Simon R. White & Sheila M. Bird & Richard Grieve**643-659 Testing for non-linear and time irreversible probabilistic structure in high frequency financial time series data***by*Phillip Wild & John Foster & Melvin. J. Hinich**661-678 Towards realtime spatiotemporal prediction of district level meningitis incidence in sub-Saharan Africa***by*Michelle C. Stanton & and Lydiane Agier & Benjamin M. Taylor & Peter J. Diggle**679-695 Geostatistical survival models for environmental risk assessment with large retrospective cohorts***by*Huan Jiang & Patrick E. Brown & Håvard Rue & Silvia Shimakura**697-723 On the epidemic of financial crises***by*Nikolaos Demiris & Theodore Kypraios & L. Vanessa Smith**725-742 Average household size and the eradication of malaria***by*Lena Huldén & Ross McKitrick & Larry Huldén**753-753 Advances in Data Analysis, Data Handling and Business Intelligence A. Fink , B. Lausen , W. Seidel and A. Ultsch (eds), 2010 Berlin , Springer 792 + xxvi pp., € 169.99 ISBN 978-3-642-01043-9***by*Kuldeep Kumar

### 2014, Volume 177, Issue 2

**319-344 Missing ordinal covariate with informative selection***by*Alfonso Miranda & Sophia Rabe-Hesketh**345-369 Wage insurance within German firms: do institutions matter?***by*N. Guertzgen**371-396 On modelling early life weight trajectories***by*Costanza Pizzi & Tim J. Cole & Camila Corvalan & Isabel dos Santos Silva & Lorenzo Richiardi & Bianca L. De Stavola**397-417 A mixed effects model for identifying goal scoring ability of footballers***by*Ian G. McHale & Łukasz Szczepański**419-438 Optimal Bayesian sequential sampling rules for the economic evaluation of health technologies***by*Paolo Pertile & Martin Forster & Davide La Torre**439-455 Multiple-membership multiple-classification models for social network and group dependences***by*Mark Tranmer & David Steel & William J. Browne**457-474 Handling missing values in cost effectiveness analyses that use data from cluster randomized trials***by*K. Díaz-Ordaz & Michael G. Kenward & Richard Grieve**475-497 An approach to perform expert elicitation for engineering design risk analysis: methodology and experimental results***by*Alessandra Babuscia & Kar-Ming Cheung**499-522 Re-engaging with survey non-respondents: evidence from three household panels***by*Nicole Watson & Mark Wooden**523-552 Evaluating nationwide health interventions: Malawi's insecticide-treated-net distribution programme***by*Eva Deuchert & Conny Wunsch**553-564 Fitting multilevel multivariate models with missing data in responses and covariates that may include interactions and non-linear terms***by*Harvey Goldstein & James R. Carpenter & William J. Browne**566-566 Probability for Statistics and Machine Learning: Fundamentals and Advanced Topics A. DasGupta , 2011 New York , Springer xx + 782 pp., £81.00 ISBN 978-1-441-99633-6***by*Jordan Stoyanov**567-567 R Graphics , 2nd edn P. Murrell , 2011 Boca Raton , Chapman and Hall–CRC xxviii + 518 pp., £52.99 ISBN 1-439-83176-2***by*Stefan K. Lhachimi**566-567 Exercises and Solutions in Biostatistical Theory L. L. Kupper , B. H. Neelon and S. M. O’Brien , 2011 Boca Raton , Chapman and Hall–CRC 402 pp., $49.95 ISBN 978-1-584-88722-5***by*Jordan Stoyanov

### 2014, Volume 177, Issue 1

**1-2 Report of the Editors***by*Linda Sharples & Arnaud Chevalier**3-38 On information quality***by*Ron S. Kenett & Galit Shmueli**39-61 A hierarchical Bayesian model for improving short-term forecasting of hospital demand by including meteorological information***by*Sujit K. Sahu & Bernard Baffour & Paul R. Harper & John H. Minty & Christophe Sarran**63-82 What do healthcare workers know about sudden infant death syndrome?: the results of the Italian campaign ‘GenitoriPiù’***by*Federico de Luca & Giovanna Boccuzzo**83-94 Antithetic time series analysis and the CompanyX data***by*Dennis Ridley & Pierre Ngnepieba**95-114 The UK minimum wage at 22 years of age: a regression discontinuity approach***by*Richard Dickens & Rebecca Riley & David Wilkinson**115-133 Testing the specification of parametric models by using anchoring vignettes***by*Arthur van Soest & Hana Vonkova**135-152 A non-parametric model of residual brand equity in hierarchical branding structures with application to US beer data***by*Sudhir Voleti & Pulak Ghosh**153-168 A comparison of the accuracy of liquid cytology versus conventional screening: a meta-analysis of split-sample studies***by*David Epstein & Antonio Olry Labry Lima & Leticia García Mochón & Jaime Espín Balbino & Javier Esquivias**169-190 Form or function?: the effect of new sports stadia on property prices in London***by*Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Georgios Kavetsos**191-208 Bayesian ranking responses in multiple-response questions***by*Hsiuying Wang & Wei Heng Huang**209-236 Estimating prevalence of injecting drug users and associated heroin-related death rates in England by using regional data and incorporating prior information***by*Ruth King & Sheila M. Bird & Antony M. Overstall & Gordon Hay & Sharon J. Hutchinson**237-257 Multilevel factor analytic models for assessing the relationship between nurse-reported adverse events and patient safety***by*Luwis Diya & Baoyue Li & Koen Heede & Walter Sermeus & Emmanuel Lesaffre**259-279 Treatment comparisons for decision making: facing the problems of sparse and few data***by*Marta O. Soares & Jo C. Dumville & A. E. Ades & Nicky J. Welton**281-294 Is there a ‘heat-or-eat’ trade-off in the UK?***by*Timothy K. M. Beatty & Laura Blow & Thomas F. Crossley**295-314 Synthesis of evidence on heterogeneous interventions with multiple outcomes recorded over multiple follow-up times reported inconsistently: a smoking cessation case-study***by*Jason Madan & Yen-Fu Chen & Paul Aveyard & Dechao Wang & Ismail Yahaya & Marcus Munafo & Linda Bauld & Nicky Welton

### 2013, Volume 176, Issue 4

**815-817 Editorial: Counting the dead properly and promptly***by*Sheila M. Bird**819-840 Statistics making an impact***by*John Pullinger**841-860 Handedness, health and cognitive development: evidence from children in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth***by*David W. Johnston & Michael E. R. Nicholls & Manisha Shah & Michael A. Shields**861-885 Does high involvement management lead to higher pay?***by*Petri Böckerman & Alex Bryson & Pekka Ilmakunnas**887-906 Social mobility, regression to the mean and the cognitive development of high ability children from disadvantaged homes***by*John Jerrim & Anna Vignoles**907-929 Assortative mating and divorce: evidence from Austrian register data***by*Wolfgang Frimmel & Martin Halla & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer**931-950 Quantifying the effect of area deprivation on child pedestrian casualties by using longitudinal mixed models to adjust for confounding, interference and spatial dependence***by*Daniel J. Graham & Emma J. McCoy & David A. Stephens**951-980 Scarring effects of remaining unemployed for long-term unemployed school-leavers***by*Bart Cockx & Matteo Picchio

### 2013, Volume 176, Issue 3

**609-634 Ratings and rankings: voodoo or science?***by*Paolo Paruolo & Michaela Saisana & Andrea Saltelli**635-653 Measures of the economic value of probabilities of bankruptcy***by*D. J. Johnstone & S. Jones & V. R. R. Jose & M. Peat**655-678 Spatial vote redistribution in redrawn polling units***by*Jose M. Pavía & Antonio López-Quílez**679-701 Social stratification and out-of-school learning***by*Christian Andersson & Per Johansson**703-722 The heterogeneous thresholds ordered response model: identification and inference***by*Franco Peracchi & Claudio Rossetti**723-741 Forecasting the European carbon market***by*Gary Koop & Lise Tole**743-760 Predicting inflation dynamics with singular spectrum analysis***by*Hossein Hassani & Abdol S. Soofi & Anatoly Zhigljavsky**761-776 Are big charities becoming more dominant?: cross-sectional and longitudinal perspectives***by*Peter Backus & David Clifford**777-793 Statistical analysis of varieties of English***by*Christopher F. H. Nam & Sach Mukherjee & Marco Schilk & Joybrato Mukherjee**795-808 Bayesian hierarchical semiparametric modelling of longitudinal post-treatment outcomes from open enrolment therapy groups***by*Susan M. Paddock & Terrance D. Savitsky

### 2013, Volume 176, Issue 2

**291-293 Editorial: On the orthography of heteros edasticity***by*Alfredo R. Paloyo**295-319 Gender wage differentials in Mexico: a distributional approach***by*Gurleen K. Popli**321-346 Epidemics in semi-isolated communities: statistical perspectives on acute childhood diseases in English public boarding schools, 1930–1939***by*Matthew Smallman-Raynor & Andrew D. Cliff**347-369 The group size and loyalty of football fans: a two-stage estimation procedure to compare customer potentials across teams***by*Leif Brandes & Egon Franck & Philipp Theiler**371-388 Assessing the accuracy of non-random business conditions surveys: a novel approach***by*Daniel de Munnik & Mark Illing & David Dupuis**389-413 A spatial Poisson hurdle model for exploring geographic variation in emergency department visits***by*Brian Neelon & Pulak Ghosh & Patrick F. Loebs**415-430 Analysing censored longitudinal data with non-ignorable missing values: depression in older age***by*Milena Falcaro & Neil Pendleton & Andrew Pickles**431-457 Widening participation in higher education: analysis using linked administrative data***by*Haroon Chowdry & Claire Crawford & Lorraine Dearden & Alissa Goodman & Anna Vignoles**459-479 Aggregate fluctuations and the cross-sectional dynamics of firm growth***by*Sean Holly & Ivan Petrella & Emiliano Santoro**481-498 The Master of the Royal Mint: how much money did Isaac Newton save Britain?***by*Ari Belenkiy**499-519 Experiments with methods to reduce attrition in longitudinal surveys***by*Laura Fumagalli & Heather Laurie & Peter Lynn**521-540 Variance estimation of the Gini index: revisiting a result several times published***by*Matti Langel & Yves Tillé**541-563 Intergenerational persistence in income and social class: the effect of within-group inequality***by*Jo Blanden & Paul Gregg & Lindsey Macmillan**565-584 Which method predicts recidivism best?: a comparison of statistical, machine learning and data mining predictive models***by*N. Tollenaar & P. G. M. van der Heijden**585-602 Development of a geographical framework for census workplace data***by*David Martin & Samantha Cockings & Andrew Harfoot**603-608 The risky reliance on small surrogate end point studies when planning a large prevention trial***by*Stuart G. Baker & Barnett S. Kramer

### 2013, Volume 176, Issue 1

**1-3 Editorial: The use of paradata in social survey research***by*Gabriele Durrant & Frauke Kreuter**5-51 Experimental designs for identifying causal mechanisms***by*Kosuke Imai & Dustin Tingley & Teppei Yamamoto**53-96 A Bayesian approach to complex clinical diagnoses: a case-study in child abuse***by*Nicky Best & Deborah Ashby & Frank Dunstan & David Foreman & Neil McIntosh**97-128 Fairness and the changing fortunes of people in Britain***by*Danny Dorling**129-145 Do non-response follow-ups improve or reduce data quality?: a review of the existing literature***by*Kristen Olson**147-168 Using level-of-effort paradata in non-response adjustments with application to field surveys***by*Paul P. Biemer & Patrick Chen & Kevin Wang**169-189 Tailored fieldwork design to increase representative household survey response: an experiment in the Survey of Consumer Satisfaction***by*Annemieke Luiten & Barry Schouten**191-210 Interviewer speech and the success of survey invitations***by*Frederick G. Conrad & Jessica S. Broome & José R. Benkí & Frauke Kreuter & Robert M. Groves & David Vannette & Colleen McClain**211-225 An examination of the quality and utility of interviewer observations in the National Survey of Family Growth***by*Brady T. West**227-249 Assessing the measurement error properties of interviewer observations of neighbourhood characteristics***by*C. Casas-Cordero & F. Kreuter & Y. Wang & S. Babey**251-269 Analysing interviewer call record data by using a multilevel discrete time event history modelling approach***by*Gabriele B. Durrant & Julia D'Arrigo & Fiona Steele**271-286 Using paradata to explore item level response times in surveys***by*Mick P. Couper & Frauke Kreuter

### 2012, Volume 175, Issue 4

**831-861 Causality, mediation and time: a dynamic viewpoint***by*Odd O. Aalen & Kjetil Røysland & Jon Michael Gran & Bruno Ledergerber**863-892 When, where and how to perform efficiency estimation***by*Oleg Badunenko & Daniel J. Henderson & Subal C. Kumbhakar**893-914 A profile of obesity in Ireland, 2002–2007***by*David Madden**915-938 Non-response biases in surveys of schoolchildren: the case of the English Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) samples***by*John Micklewright & Sylke V. Schnepf & Chris Skinner**939-958 Syndromic surveillance of influenza-like illness in Scotland during the influenza A H1N1v pandemic and beyond***by*Kimberley Kavanagh & Chris Robertson & Heather Murdoch & George Crooks & Jim McMenamin**959-975 The synoptic problem: on Matthew's and Luke's use of Mark***by*Andris Abakuks**1072-1072 Non-parametric Econometrics***by*Chee Kian Leong**1073-1073 Networks, Crowds and Markets: Reasoning about a Highly Connected World***by*Morteza Aalabaf-Sabaghi**1074-1075 Dynamic Mixed Models for Familial Longitudinal Data***by*Vandna Jowaheer**1073-1074 Biplots in Practice***by*Eric J. Beh**1072-1073 Visualizing Data Patterns with Micromaps***by*M. Dolores Ugarte

### 2012, Volume 175, Issue 3

**661-689 Log-optimal economic evaluation of probability forecasts***by*D. J. Johnstone**691-712 Sample size estimation for alternating logistic regressions analysis of multilevel randomized community trials of under-age drinking***by*Beth A. Reboussin & John S. Preisser & Eun-Young Song & Mark Wolfson**713-727 Assessing gross domestic product and inflation probability forecasts derived from Bank of England fan charts***by*John W. Galbraith & Simon van Norden**729-747 Improved probabilistic prediction of healthcare performance indicators using bidirectional smoothing models***by*Hayley E. Jones & David J. Spiegelhalter**749-773 How real is mobility between low pay, high pay and non-employment?***by*Dimitris Pavlopoulos & Ruud Muffels & Jeroen K. Vermunt**775-798 Evaluating the effects of university grants by using regression discontinuity designs***by*Fabrizia Mealli & Carla Rampichini