IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssa/v185y2022is2ps515-s546.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fertility, economic incentives and individual heterogeneity: Register data‐based evidence from France and Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Cäcilia Lipowski
  • Ralf A. Wilke
  • Bertrand Koebel

Abstract

This study demonstrates the importance of accounting for correlated unobserved heterogeneity to correctly identify the relevance of career and education for fertility decisions. By exploiting individual‐level life‐cycle information on fertility, career and education from large administrative longitudinal datasets, this paper shows that non‐linear panel models produce substantially different results than the cross‐sectional approaches widely used in previous studies. Higher opportunity costs of having children are found to be associated with lower fertility within a country, while the magnitude of the adjustment differs strongly across countries. In Germany, fertility decisions are found to depend more on individual circumstances than in France, where better public childcare support enhances the compatibility between family and professional life.

Suggested Citation

  • Cäcilia Lipowski & Ralf A. Wilke & Bertrand Koebel, 2022. "Fertility, economic incentives and individual heterogeneity: Register data‐based evidence from France and Germany," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(S2), pages 515-546, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:185:y:2022:i:s2:p:s515-s546
    DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12941
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12941
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/rssa.12941?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jérôme Adda & Christian Dustmann & Katrien Stevens, 2017. "The Career Costs of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 293-337.
    2. Ronald Rindfuss & S. Morgan & Kate Offutt, 1996. "Education and the changing age pattern of American fertility: 1963–1989," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 33(3), pages 277-290, August.
    3. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2013. "Regression Analysis of Count Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107667273, November.
    4. Cygan-Rehm, Kamila & Maeder, Miriam, 2013. "The effect of education on fertility: Evidence from a compulsory schooling reform," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 35-48.
    5. Baclet, Alexandre & Dell, Fabien & Wrohlich, Katharina, 2005. "Income Taxation and Household Size: Would French Family Splitting Make German Families Better Off?," IZA Discussion Papers 1894, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Tropf, Felix C & Mandemakers, Jornt J, 2017. "Is the Association Between Education and Fertility Postponement Causal? The Role of Family Background Factors," OSF Preprints dqrrx, Center for Open Science.
    7. Melanie Arntz & Stephan Dlugosz & Ralf A. Wilke, 2017. "The Sorting of Female Careers after First Birth: A Competing Risks Analysis of Maternity Leave Duration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(5), pages 689-716, October.
    8. Martin, Robert S., 2017. "Estimation of average marginal effects in multiplicative unobserved effects panel models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 16-19.
    9. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-720, May.
    10. Anne Gauthier, 2007. "The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: a review of the literature," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(3), pages 323-346, June.
    11. Justin McCrary & Heather Royer, 2011. "The Effect of Female Education on Fertility and Infant Health: Evidence from School Entry Policies Using Exact Date of Birth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 158-195, February.
    12. Moshe Hazan & Hosny Zoabi, 2015. "Do Highly Educated Women Choose Smaller Families?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(587), pages 1191-1226, September.
    13. Matteo Picchio & Claudia Pigini & Stefano Staffolani & Alina Verashchagina, 2021. "If not now, when? The timing of childbirth and labor market outcomes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 663-685, September.
    14. Felix C. Tropf & Jornt J. Mandemakers, 2017. "Is the Association Between Education and Fertility Postponement Causal? The Role of Family Background Factors," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(1), pages 71-91, February.
    15. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2010. "The Role Of Labor And Marriage Markets, Preference Heterogeneity, And The Welfare System In The Life Cycle Decisions Of Black, Hispanic, And White Women," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(3), pages 851-892, August.
    16. Deborah J. Anderson & Melissa Binder & Kate Krause, 2002. "The Motherhood Wage Penalty: Which Mothers Pay It and Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 354-358, May.
    17. Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2002. "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(4), pages 667-682.
    18. Stefan Bauernschuster & Timo Hener & Helmut Rainer, 2016. "Children Of A (Policy) Revolution: The Introduction Of Universal Child Care And Its Effect On Fertility," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 975-1005, August.
    19. Jakubson, George, 1988. "The Sensitivity of Labor-Supply Parameter Estimates to Unobserved Individual Effects: Fixed- and Random-Effects Estimates in a Nonlinear Model Using Panel Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(3), pages 302-329, July.
    20. Stefan Bauernschuster & Timo Hener & Helmut Rainer, 2016. "Children Of A (Policy) Revolution: The Introduction Of Universal Child Care And Its Effect On Fertility," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 975-1005, August.
    21. Jason M. Lindo, 2010. "Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(2).
    22. Bruno Rodrigues & Vincent Vergnat, 2019. "The time and the transitions back to work in France after maternity," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 861-888, September.
    23. Hotz, V Joseph & Miller, Robert A, 1988. "An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 91-118, January.
    24. Karin Monstad & Carol Propper & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2008. "Education and Fertility: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(4), pages 827-852, December.
    25. Michael F. Lovenheim & Kevin J. Mumford, 2013. "Do Family Wealth Shocks Affect Fertility Choices? Evidence from the Housing Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 464-475, May.
    26. Daniela Del Boca, 2002. "The effect of child care and part time opportunities on participation and fertility decisions in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 549-573.
    27. Markus Gangl & Andrea Ziefle, 2009. "Motherhood, labor force behavior, and women’s careers: An empirical assessment of the wage penalty for motherhood in britain, germany, and the united states," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(2), pages 341-369, May.
    28. Gary Chamberlain, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 225-238.
    29. Chamberlain, Gary, 1982. "Multivariate regression models for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 5-46, January.
    30. Anne Salles & Clémentine Rossier & Sara Brachet, 2010. "Understanding the long term effects of family policies on fertility: The diffusion of different family models in France and Germany," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(34), pages 1057-1096.
    31. Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
    32. Margherita Fort & Nicole Schneeweis & Rudolf Winter‐Ebmer, 2016. "Is Education Always Reducing Fertility? Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Reforms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(595), pages 1823-1855, September.
    33. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    34. Deaton, Angus, 1985. "Panel data from time series of cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 109-126.
    35. Marco Francesconi, 2002. "A Joint Dynamic Model of Fertility and Work of Married Women," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(2), pages 336-380, Part.
    36. Hsu, Yu-Chin & Shiu, Ji-Liang, 2021. "Nonlinear Panel Data Models With Distribution-Free Correlated Random Effects," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(6), pages 1075-1099, December.
    37. Anja Oppermann, 2017. "Educational field and fertility in western Germany: an analysis of women born between 1955 and 1959," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 15(1), pages 239-267.
    38. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin & Éva Beaujouan, 2012. "Fertility postponement is largely due to rising educational enrolment," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(3), pages 311-327.
    39. Heckman, James J & Walker, James R, 1990. "The Relationship between Wages and Income and the Timing and Spacing of Births: Evidence from Swedish Longitudinal Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1411-1441, November.
    40. Siv Gustafsson, 2001. "Optimal age at motherhood. Theoretical and empirical considerations on postponement of maternity in Europe," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Doepke, Matthias & Hannusch, Anne & Kindermann, Fabian & Tertilt, Michèle, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," IZA Discussion Papers 15224, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Shuang Chen, 2022. "The Positive Effect of Women’s Education on Fertility in Low-Fertility China," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 125-161, March.
    3. Josefine Koebe & Jan Marcus, 2022. "The Length of Schooling and the Timing of Family Formation [Income Taxes and the Timing of Marital Decisions]," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 68(1), pages 1-45.
    4. Josefine Koebe & Jan Marcus, 2020. "The Impact of the Length of Schooling on the Timing of Family Formation," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1896, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Robert M. Sauer & Christopher Taber, 2021. "Understanding women's wage growth using indirect inference with importance sampling," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 453-473, June.
    6. Sauer, Robert M. & Taber, Christopher, 2017. "Indirect Inference with Importance Sampling: An Application to Women's Wage Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11004, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Jie Wei & Yonghui Zhang, 2022. "Panel Probit Models with Time‐Varying Individual Effects: Reestimating the Effects of Fertility on Female Labour Participation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(4), pages 799-829, August.
    8. Insu Chang & Heeran Park & Hosung Sohn, 2021. "Causal Impact of School Starting Age on the Tempo of Childbirths: Evidence from Working Mothers and School Entry Cutoff Using Exact Date of Birth," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(4), pages 997-1022, November.
    9. Virtanen, Hanna & Silliman, Mikko & Kuuppelomäki, Tiina & Huttunen, Kristiina, 2024. "Education, Gender, and Family Formation," IZA Discussion Papers 17122, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Maria De Paola & Roberto Nisticò & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2020. "Fertility Decisions And Employment Protection: The Unintended Consequences Of The Italian Jobs Act," Working Papers 202003, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
    11. Maria De Paola & Roberto Nisticò & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2021. "Academic Careers and Fertility Decisions," CSEF Working Papers 595, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    12. Yung-Yu Tsai & Hsing-Wen Han & Kuang-Ta Lo & Tzu-Ting Yang, 2022. "The Effect of Financial Resources on Fertility: Evidence fromAdministrative Data on Lottery Winners," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 22-A007, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    13. Daniel Kamhoefer & Matthias Westphal, 2017. "Fertility Effects of College Education: Evidence from the German Educational Expansion," CINCH Working Paper Series 1705, Universitaet Duisburg-Essen, Competent in Competition and Health.
    14. Anna Bokun, 2024. "Cash transfers and fertility: Evidence from Poland’s Family 500+ Policy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(28), pages 855-910.
    15. Yung-Yu Tsai & Hsing-Wen Han & Kuang-Ta Lo & Tzu-Ting Yang, 2022. "The Effect of Financial Resources on Fertility: Evidence from Administrative Data on Lottery Winners," Papers 2212.06223, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    16. Francis Kramarz & Olof Rosenqvist & Oskar Nordström Skans, 2023. "How family background shapes the relationship between human capital and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 235-262, January.
    17. Caroline Krafft, 2020. "Why is fertility on the rise in Egypt? The role of women’s employment opportunities," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1173-1218, October.
    18. Virginia Sanchez Marcos & Ezgi Kaya & Nezih Guner, 2017. "Labor Market Frictions and Lowest Low Fertility," 2017 Meeting Papers 1015, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    20. Seongsoo Choi, 2018. "Fewer mothers with more colleges? The impacts of expansion in higher education on first marriage and first childbirth," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(20), pages 593-634.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:185:y:2022:i:s2:p:s515-s546. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.