A Bayesian multivariate hierarchical growth curve model to examine cumulative socio‐economic (dis)advantage among childless adults and parents

Childlessness and socio‐economic well‐being interact dynamically throughout the life course, possibly resulting in an accumulation of socio‐economic (dis)advantage. Methods commonly used to investigate this hypothesis are unable to simultaneously acknowledge that childlessness entails a heterogeneous and processual ‘non‐event’ which interrelates with multiple life domains. I use Bayesian multivariate hierarchical growth curve modelling to facilitate synchronous incorporation of these substantive complexities. I construct prospective interdependent life course trajectories of socio‐economic well‐being for eventual parents and permanently childless adults; distinguishing voluntary, involuntary, circumstantial and indecisive childlessness. Using 1970 British Cohort Study data, I find that parents and voluntarily childless adults are more satisfied with life than non‐voluntarily childless adults. Voluntarily and circumstantially childless women earn most and mothers least, while fathers outearn childless men. (Dis)advantage in economic and male subjective well‐being accumulates throughout the life course. Group differences in partnerships, employment, education and health, more than childbearing behaviours themselves, explain the (growth of) these socio‐economic differentials. The findings have implications for policies addressing socio‐economic inequalities by both parental status and gender. The proposed approach provides valuable for assessing cumulative (dis)advantage in interrelated life domains via an unclearly marked heterogeneous process, not only in the context of childlessness but also other life course topics.