IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssa/v185y2022i4p1560-1583.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating monthly labour force figures during the COVID‐19 pandemic in the Netherlands

Author

Listed:
  • Jan van den Brakel
  • Martijn Souren
  • Sabine Krieg

Abstract

Official monthly statistics about the Dutch labour force are based on the Dutch Labour Force Survey (LFS). The LFS is a continuously conducted survey that is designed as a rotating panel design. Data collection among selected households is based on a mixed‐mode design that uses web interviewing, telephone interviewing and face‐to‐face interviewing. Monthly estimates about the labour force are obtained with a structural time series model. Due to the COVID‐19 pandemic, face‐to‐face interviewing stopped. It was anticipated that this would have a systematic effect on the outcomes of the LFS and that the lockdown at the same time affected the real monthly labour force figures. The lockdown indeed marked a sharp turning point in the evolution of the series of the monthly labour force figures and strongly increased the volatility of these series. In this paper, it is explained how Statistics Netherlands produced monthly labour force figures during the COVID‐19 pandemic. It is shown how the sudden change in the mode effects, because face‐to‐face interviewing stopped, were separated from real period‐to‐period changes in the labour force figures. It is also explained how the time series model is adapted to the increased volatility in the labour force figures.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan van den Brakel & Martijn Souren & Sabine Krieg, 2022. "Estimating monthly labour force figures during the COVID‐19 pandemic in the Netherlands," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(4), pages 1560-1583, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:185:y:2022:i:4:p:1560-1583
    DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12869
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12869
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/rssa.12869?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pfeffermann, Danny, 1991. "Estimation and Seasonal Adjustment of Population Means Using Data from Repeated Surveys: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(2), pages 177-177, April.
    2. Pfeffermann, Danny & Feder, Moshe & Signorelli, David, 1998. "Estimation of Autocorrelations of Survey Errors with Application to Trend Estimation in Small Areas," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 339-348, July.
    3. Pfeffermann, Danny & Tiller, Richard, 2006. "Small-Area Estimation With StateSpace Models Subject to Benchmark Constraints," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1387-1397, December.
    4. Carlos M. Carvalho & Nicholas G. Polson & James G. Scott, 2010. "The horseshoe estimator for sparse signals," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 97(2), pages 465-480.
    5. Harvey,Andrew C., 2013. "Dynamic Models for Volatility and Heavy Tails," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107630024, Enero-Abr.
    6. McCausland, William J. & Miller, Shirley & Pelletier, Denis, 2011. "Simulation smoothing for state-space models: A computational efficiency analysis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 199-212, January.
    7. Xueying Tang & Malay Ghosh & Neung Soo Ha & Joseph Sedransk, 2018. "Modeling Random Effects Using Global–Local Shrinkage Priors in Small Area Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(524), pages 1476-1489, October.
    8. Pfeffermann, Danny, 1991. "Estimation and Seasonal Adjustment of Population Means Using Data from Repeated Surveys," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(2), pages 163-175, April.
    9. Jan van den Brakel & Xichuan (Mark) Zhang & Siu‐Ming Tam, 2020. "Measuring Discontinuities in Time Series Obtained with Repeated Sample Surveys," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(1), pages 155-175, April.
    10. Ruiz-Cárdenas, Ramiro & Krainski, Elias T. & Rue, Håvard, 2012. "Direct fitting of dynamic models using integrated nested Laplace approximations — INLA," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1808-1828.
    11. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178, Decembrie.
    12. Jan A. Brakel & Sabine Krieg, 2016. "Small area estimation with state space common factor models for rotating panels," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(3), pages 763-791, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Caio Gonçalves & Luna Hidalgo & Denise Silva & Jan van den Brakel, 2022. "Single‐month unemployment rate estimates for the Brazilian Labour Force Survey using state‐space models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(4), pages 1707-1732, October.
    2. Krieg, Sabine & van den Brakel, Jan A., 2012. "Estimation of the monthly unemployment rate for six domains through structural time series modelling with cointegrated trends," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(10), pages 2918-2933.
    3. Danny Pfeffermann, 2022. "Time series modelling of repeated survey data for estimation of finite population parameters," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(4), pages 1757-1777, October.
    4. Oksana Bollineni‐Balabay & Jan van den Brakel & Franz Palm & Harm Jan Boonstra, 2017. "Multilevel hierarchical Bayesian versus state space approach in time series small area estimation: the Dutch Travel Survey," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(4), pages 1281-1308, October.
    5. Jan A. Brakel & Sabine Krieg, 2016. "Small area estimation with state space common factor models for rotating panels," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(3), pages 763-791, June.
    6. Caterina Schiavoni & Siem Jan Koopman & Franz Palm & Stephan Smeekes & Jan van den Brakel, 2021. "Time-varying state correlations in state space models and their estimation via indirect inference," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-020/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Harm Jan Boonstra & Jan A. Van Den Brakel & Bart Buelens & Sabine Krieg & Marc Smeets, 2008. "Towards small area estimation at Statistics Netherlands," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(1), pages 21-49.
    8. Caterina Schiavoni & Franz Palm & Stephan Smeekes & Jan van den Brakel, 2021. "A dynamic factor model approach to incorporate Big Data in state space models for official statistics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(1), pages 324-353, January.
    9. Weigand Roland & Wanger Susanne & Zapf Ines, 2018. "Factor Structural Time Series Models for Official Statistics with an Application to Hours Worked in Germany," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 34(1), pages 265-301, March.
    10. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    11. Jo Thori Lind, 2005. "Repeated surveys and the Kalman filter," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(3), pages 418-427, December.
    12. Jan van den Brakel & Xichuan (Mark) Zhang & Siu‐Ming Tam, 2020. "Measuring Discontinuities in Time Series Obtained with Repeated Sample Surveys," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(1), pages 155-175, April.
    13. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Marcin Zamojski, 2015. "Generalized Autoregressive Method of Moments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-138/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 06 Jul 2018.
    14. Tamal Ghosh & Malay Ghosh & Jerry J. Maples & Xueying Tang, 2022. "Multivariate Global-Local Priors for Small Area Estimation," Stats, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-16, July.
    15. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    16. Creal, Drew & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André & Zamojski, Marcin, 2024. "Observation-driven filtering of time-varying parameters using moment conditions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    17. Bitto, Angela & Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia, 2019. "Achieving shrinkage in a time-varying parameter model framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 75-97.
    18. Loaiza-Maya, Rubén & Smith, Michael Stanley & Nott, David J. & Danaher, Peter J., 2022. "Fast and accurate variational inference for models with many latent variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 339-362.
    19. Hauzenberger Niko & Huber Florian & Koop Gary, 2024. "Dynamic Shrinkage Priors for Large Time-Varying Parameter Regressions Using Scalable Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 28(2), pages 201-225, April.
    20. Michele Caivano & Andrew Harvey, 2014. "Time-series models with an EGB2 conditional distribution," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 558-571, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:185:y:2022:i:4:p:1560-1583. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.