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Corporate Survival in Emerging European Markets: Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian War

Author

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  • Evžen Kočenda
  • Ichiro Iwasaki

Abstract

We investigate the determinants of firm survival in 17 emerging European markets during the dual crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian war. Using a large dataset of over 59,000 firms and employing a Cox proportional hazards model, the study evaluates how firm-specific characteristics, regional socio-economic conditions, and institutional quality shaped survival outcomes between 2020 and 2023. The analysis reveals that firm exit was more prevalent in EU member states, likely due to stricter crisis-related restrictions. Socio-economic variables such as population density, tourism dependence, and health expenditures played a critical role, while institutional quality, contrary to expectations, was associated with higher exit rates during crises. The banking sector played a role in influencing firm resilience through credit provision and financial support mechanisms. The Russo-Ukrainian war further amplified survival risks, especially for firms located in countries geographically or economically exposed to the conflict. The findings offer valuable insights for designing targeted policy interventions aimed at enhancing business resilience in vulnerable and institutionally diverse environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Evžen Kočenda & Ichiro Iwasaki, 2025. "Corporate Survival in Emerging European Markets: Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian War," CESifo Working Paper Series 12005, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12005
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • D02 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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