IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mde/wpaper/0170.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Supporting small firms through recessions and recoveries

Author

Listed:
  • Diana Bonfim
  • Cláudia Custódio
  • Clara Raposo

Abstract

We use variation in the access to a government credit certification program to estimate the financial and real effects of supporting small firms. This program has been implemented during the global financial crisis, but has remained active ever since, allowing us to analyze its effects both during recessions and recoveries. Eligible firms have access to government loan guarantees and a credit quality certification. We estimate real effects using a multidimensional regression discontinuity design. We find that eligible firms borrow more and at lower rates than non-eligible firms, allowing them to increase investment and employment during crises. Industry-level analysis shows reduced productivity heterogeneity in more exposed industries, which is consistent with improved credit allocation. However, when the economy is recovering the effects of the program are less pronounced and centered on the certification component.

Suggested Citation

  • Diana Bonfim & Cláudia Custódio & Clara Raposo, 2022. "Supporting small firms through recessions and recoveries," GEE Papers 0170, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Sep 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:0170
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.gee.gov.pt//RePEc/WorkingPapers/GEE_PAPERS_170.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2022
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14127 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Laurent Bach, 2014. "Are Small Businesses Worthy of Financial Aid? Evidence from a French Targeted Credit Program," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(3), pages 877-919.
    3. Kalina Manova, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms, and International Trade," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 711-744.
    4. Zhuan Pei & David S. Lee & David Card & Andrea Weber, 2022. "Local Polynomial Order in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1259-1267, June.
    5. Markus Frölich & Martin Huber, 2019. "Including Covariates in the Regression Discontinuity Design," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 736-748, October.
    6. G. B. Gorton & Ping He, 2008. "Bank Credit Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(4), pages 1181-1214.
    7. Columba, Francesco & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2010. "Mutual guarantee institutions and small business finance," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 45-54, April.
    8. Muûls, Mirabelle, 2015. "Exporters, importers and credit constraints," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 333-343.
    9. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    10. Daniel Ferreira & Miguel A. Ferreira & Beatriz Mariano, 2018. "Creditor Control Rights and Board Independence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(5), pages 2385-2423, October.
    11. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Esther Duflo, 2014. "Do Firms Want to Borrow More? Testing Credit Constraints Using a Directed Lending Program," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(2), pages 572-607.
    12. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Herman Kamil & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2016. "What Hinders Investment in the Aftermath of Financial Crises: Insolvent Firms or Illiquid Banks?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 756-769, October.
    13. Santiago Carbó-Valverde & Francisco Rodríguez-Fernández & Gregory F. Udell, 2009. "Bank Market Power and SME Financing Constraints," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(2), pages 309-340.
    14. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Chaney, Thomas, 2016. "Liquidity constrained exporters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 141-154.
    16. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "COVID-19 and SME Failures," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2020-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    17. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2006. "A more complete conceptual framework for SME finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2945-2966, November.
    18. Vadim Elenev & Tim Landvoigt & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2022. "Can the covid bailouts save the economy?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(110), pages 277-330.
    19. Bartoli, Francesca & Ferri, Giovanni & Murro, Pierluigi & Rotondi, Zeno, 2013. "Bank–firm relations and the role of Mutual Guarantee Institutions at the peak of the crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 90-104.
    20. Gilles Chemla & Christopher A. Hennessy, 2014. "Skin in the Game and Moral Hazard," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(4), pages 1597-1641, August.
    21. Ryan, Robert M. & O’Toole, Conor M. & McCann, Fergal, 2014. "Does bank market power affect SME financing constraints?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 495-505.
    22. Ferreira, Daniel & Ferreira, Miguel A. & Mariano, Beatriz, 2018. "Creditor control rights and board independence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 84463, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    23. Emin Dinlersoz & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Henry Hyatt & Veronika Penciakova, 2018. "Leverage over the Firm Life-Cycle, Firm Growth, and Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 25226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Daniel Paravisini & Veronica Rappoport & Philipp Schnabl & Daniel Wolfenzon, 2015. "Dissecting the Effect of Credit Supply on Trade: Evidence from Matched Credit-Export Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 333-359.
    25. Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Sascha Steffen, 2022. "Zombie Lending: Theoretical, International, and Historical Perspectives," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 21-38, November.
    26. Robert Deyoung & Anne Gron & Gӧkhan Torna & Andrew Winton, 2015. "Risk Overhang and Loan Portfolio Decisions: Small Business Loan Supply before and during the Financial Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(6), pages 2451-2488, December.
    27. Gilles Chemla & Christopher A. Hennessy, 2014. "Skin in the Game and Moral Hazard," Post-Print hal-01457063, HAL.
    28. Kahn, Charles M. & Wagner, Wolf, 2021. "Liquidity provision during a pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    29. Marianne Bertrand & Antoinette Schoar & David Thesmar, 2007. "Banking Deregulation and Industry Structure: Evidence from the French Banking Reforms of 1985," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 597-628, April.
    30. William Mullins & Patricio Toro, 2018. "Credit Guarantees and New Bank Relationships," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 820, Central Bank of Chile.
    31. Thomas Chaney, 2016. "Liquidity Constrained Exporters," SciencePo Working papers hal-03389283, HAL.
    32. Guido Imbens & Karthik Kalyanaraman, 2012. "Optimal Bandwidth Choice for the Regression Discontinuity Estimator," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(3), pages 933-959.
    33. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5g3sadr9h8gbri8hrtq0h6au2 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Carlo Altavilla & Andrew Ellul & Marco Pagano & Andrea Polo & Thomas Vlassopoulos, 2021. "Loan Guarantees, Bank Lending and Credit Risk Reallocation," CSEF Working Papers 629, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 30 Jul 2022.
    35. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem, 2018. "Leverage over the Life Cycle and Implications for Firm Growth and Shock Responsiveness," CEPR Discussion Papers 13337, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    36. Camelia Minoiu & Rebecca Zarutskie & Andrei Zlate, 2021. "Motivating Banks to Lend? Credit Spillover Effects of the Main Street Lending Program," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-078, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    37. Nicolas Crouzet & Neil R. Mehrotra, 2020. "Small and Large Firms over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(11), pages 3549-3601, November.
    38. Campello, Murillo & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2010. "The real effects of financial constraints: Evidence from a financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 470-487, September.
    39. Claire Lelarge & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2010. "Entrepreneurship and Credit Constraints: Evidence from a French Loan Guarantee Program," NBER Chapters, in: International Differences in Entrepreneurship, pages 243-273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Granja, João & Makridis, Christos & Yannelis, Constantine & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Did the paycheck protection program hit the target?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 725-761.
    41. Burgstahler, David & Dichev, Ilia, 1997. "Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 99-126, December.
    42. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 2006. "Small and medium-size enterprises: Access to finance as a growth constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2931-2943, November.
    43. Robert E. Carpenter & Bruce C. Petersen, 2002. "Is The Growth Of Small Firms Constrained By Internal Finance?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 298-309, May.
    44. Behr, Patrick & Norden, Lars & Noth, Felix, 2013. "Financial constraints of private firms and bank lending behavior," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3472-3485.
    45. Alessio D’Ignazio & Carlo Menon, 2020. "Causal Effect of Credit Guarantees for Small‐ and Medium‐Sized Enterprises: Evidence from Italy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(1), pages 191-218, January.
    46. Alexander W. Bartik & Zoe B. Cullen & Edward L. Glaeser & Michael Luca & Christopher T. Stanton & Adi Sunderam, 2020. "When Should Public Programs be Privately Administered? Theory and Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program," NBER Working Papers 27623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Anna Cororaton & Samuel Rosen, 2021. "Public Firm Borrowers of the U.S. Paycheck Protection Program [The risk of being a fallen angel and the corporate dash for cash in the midst of COVID]," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 641-693.
    48. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    49. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Max H. Farrell & Roc ́ıo Titiunik, 2017. "rdrobust: Software for regression-discontinuity designs," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 17(2), pages 372-404, June.
    50. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    51. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad & Tressel, Thierry, 2020. "The global financial crisis and the capital structure of firms: Was the impact more severe among SMEs and non-listed firms?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    52. Ferrando, Annalisa & Popov, Alexander & Udell, Gregory F., 2015. "Sovereign stress, unconventional monetary policy, and SME access to finance," Working Paper Series 1820, European Central Bank.
    53. J. David Brown & John S. Earle, 2017. "Finance and Growth at the Firm Level: Evidence from SBA Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1039-1080, June.
    54. de Blasio, Guido & De Mitri, Stefania & D'Ignazio, Alessio & Finaldi Russo, Paolo & Stoppani, Lavinia, 2018. "Public guarantees to SME borrowing. A RDD evaluation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 73-86.
    55. David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2023. "How to Use Natural Experiments to Estimate Misallocation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(4), pages 906-938, April.
    56. Minetti, Raoul & Zhu, Susan Chun, 2011. "Credit constraints and firm export: Microeconomic evidence from Italy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 109-125, March.
    57. Santiago Carbó‐Valverde & Francisco Rodríguez‐Fernández & Gregory F. Udell, 2016. "Trade Credit, the Financial Crisis, and SME Access to Finance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 113-143, February.
    58. De Marco, Filippo & Core, Fabrizio, 2021. "Information Technology and Credit: Evidence from Public Guarantees," CEPR Discussion Papers 15799, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    59. Bachas, Natalie & Kim, Olivia S. & Yannelis, Constantine, 2021. "Loan guarantees and credit supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 872-894.
    60. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2018. "Manipulation testing based on density discontinuity," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 18(1), pages 234-261, March.
    61. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2021. "COVID-19 and Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises: A 2021 "Time Bomb"?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 282-286, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. HONDA Tomohito & HOSONO Kaoru & MIYAKAWA Daisuke & ONO Arito & UESUGI Iichiro, 2024. "Imperfect Take-up of COVID-19 Business Support Programs," Discussion papers 24001, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Bellucci, Andrea & Pennacchio, Luca & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2023. "Debt financing of SMEs: The certification role of R&D Subsidies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Ting Feng & Zhongyi Xue, 2023. "The impact of government subsidies on corporate resilience: evidence from the COVID-19 shock," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4199-4221, December.
    4. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque, 2024. "The Credit Channel of Public Procurement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    5. van der Geest, Jesse, 2024. "Economic effects of tax avoidance and compliance," Other publications TiSEM aaca33bf-975d-4e21-9b5f-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Chuanzhen Li & Liang Zhao & Yiwen Zhang, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and cash dividend policy: evidence from China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Diana Bonfim & Cláudia Custódio, 2021. "The sensitivity of SME’s investment and employment to the cost of debt financing," Working Papers w202115, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Agarwal, Natasha & Chan, Jackie M.L. & Lodefalk, Magnus & Tang, Aili & Tano, Sofia & Wang, Zheng, 2023. "Mitigating information frictions in trade: Evidence from export credit guarantees," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Huneeus, Federico & Kaboski, Joseph & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Vera, Mario, 2022. "The Distribution of Crisis Credit: Effects on Firm Indebtedness and Aggregate Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 17061, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. José Manuel Mansilla-Fernández & Juliette Milgram-Baleix, 2023. "Working capital management, financial constraints and exports: evidence from European and US manufacturers," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1769-1810, April.
    5. Giuseppe Cascarino & Raffaele Gallo & Francesco Palazzo & Enrico Sette, 2022. "Public guarantees and credit additionality during the Covid-19 pandemic," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 172, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    6. Choi, ByeongHwa, 2023. "The impact of financial development on innovation-based exports: Do all firms benefit equally?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 81-100.
    7. Xiaowei Kong & Deng-Kui Si & Haiyang Li & Dongmin Kong, 2021. "Does access to credit reduce SMEs’ tax avoidance? Evidence from a regression discontinuity design," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-23, December.
    8. Bergin, Paul R. & Feng, Ling & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2021. "Trade and firm financing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    9. Péter Harasztosi & Laurent Maurin & Rozália Pál & Debora Revoltella & Wouter van der Wielen, 2022. "Firm-level policy support during the crisis: So far, so good?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 171, pages 30-48.
    10. Florian Unger, 2021. "Credit frictions, selection into external finance and gains from trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1206-1251, November.
    11. Federico J. Diez & Jesse Mora & Alan C. Spearot, 2016. "Firms in international trade," Working Papers 16-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    12. Ana P. Fernandes & Jing-Lin Duanmu, 2023. "Foreign Banks and Firms' Export Dynamics: Evidence from China's Banking Reform," Discussion Papers 2304, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    13. Juan A. Máñez Castillejo & Oscar Vicente-Chirivella, 2019. "Exports of Spanish manufacturing firms and financial constraints," Working Papers 1921, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    14. Mustapha Douch & Terence Huw Edwards & Jan Van Hove & Janez Kren, 2021. "The Great Trade Collapse and the determinants of UK export margins: A cohort‐ and firm‐level matching approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(10), pages 2838-2857, October.
    15. Kazakov, Aleksandr & Koetter, Michael & Titze, Mirko & Tonzer, Lena, 2022. "Firm subsidies, financial intermediation, and bank risk," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    16. D’Inverno, Giovanna & Smet, Mike & De Witte, Kristof, 2021. "Impact evaluation in a multi-input multi-output setting: Evidence on the effect of additional resources for schools," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(3), pages 1111-1124.
    17. Kohn, David & Leibovici, Fernando & Szkup, Michal, 2020. "Financial frictions and export dynamics in large devaluations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    18. Maria Luisa Mancusi & Andrea Vezzulli & Serena Frazzoni & Zeno Rotondi & Maurizio Sobrero, 2018. "Export and Innovation in Small and Medium Enterprises: The Role of Concentrated Bank Borrowing," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(337), pages 177-204, January.
    19. Mellace, Giovanni & Ventura, Marco, 2019. "Intended and unintended effects of public incentives for innovation. Quasi-experimental evidence from Italy," Discussion Papers on Economics 9/2019, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    20. Wagner, Joachim, 2015. "Credit constraints and the extensive margins of exports: First evidence for German manufacturing," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-17.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Small Firms’ Financing; Credit Rating; Credit Certification; Cost of Debt; Investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:0170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joana Almodovar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/geegvpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.