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Can the Covid Bailouts Save the Economy?

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  • Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn
  • Landvoigt, Tim
  • Elenev, Vadim

Abstract

The covid-19 crisis has led to a sharp deterioration in firm and bank balance sheets. The government has responded with a massive intervention in corporate credit markets. We study equilibrium dynamics of macroeconomic quantities and prices, and how they are affected by government intervention in the corporate debt markets. We find that the policies should be highly effective at preventing a much deeper crisis by reducing corporate bankruptcies by about half, and short-circuiting the doom loop between corporate and financial sector fragility. The fiscal costs are high and will lead to rising interest rates on government debt. We propose a more effective intervention with lower fiscal cost. Finally, we study longer-run consequences for firm leverage and intermediary health when pandemics become the new normal.

Suggested Citation

  • Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Landvoigt, Tim & Elenev, Vadim, 2020. "Can the Covid Bailouts Save the Economy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14714, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14714
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; Bailout; Credit crisis; Financial intermediation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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