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Mobility decisions, economic dynamics and Epidemic

Author

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  • Giorgio Fabbri
  • Salvatore Federico
  • Davide Fiaschi
  • Fausto Gozzi

Abstract

We propose a model, which nests a susceptible-infected-recovered-deceased (SIRD) model of epidemic into a dynamic macroeconomic equilibrium framework with agents’ mobility. The latter affect both their income and their probability of infecting and being infected. Strategic complementarities among individual mobility choices drive the evolution of aggregate economic activity, while infection externalities caused by individual mobility affect disease diffusion. The continuum of rational forward-looking agents coordinates on the Nash equilibrium of a discrete time, finite-state, infinite-horizon Mean Field Game. We prove the existence of an equilibrium and provide a recursive construction method for the search of an equilibrium(a), which also guides our numerical investigations. We calibrate the model by using Italian experience on COVID-19 epidemic and we discuss policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgio Fabbri & Salvatore Federico & Davide Fiaschi & Fausto Gozzi, 2022. "Mobility decisions, economic dynamics and Epidemic," Working Papers 2022-03, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
  • Handle: RePEc:gbl:wpaper:2022-03
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    Cited by:

    1. Hippolyte d’Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Dramane Coulibaly & Rodolphe Desbordes, 2024. "Covid-19 and mobility: determinant or consequence?," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 261-282, February.
    2. Josselin Thuilliez & Nouhoum Touré, 2024. "Opinions and vaccination during an epidemic," Post-Print hal-04490900, HAL.
    3. Josselin Thuilliez & Nouhoum Touré, 2024. "Opinions and vaccination during an epidemic," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-04490900, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mean field game; strategic complementarities; ESIRD; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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