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Mobility decisions, economic dynamics and epidemic

Author

Listed:
  • Giorgio Fabbri

    (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Salvatore Federico

    (UniGe - Università degli studi di Genova = University of Genoa = Université de Gênes)

  • Davide Fiaschi

    (UniPi - University of Pisa [Italy] = Università di Pisa [Italia] = Université de Pise [Italie])

  • Fausto Gozzi

    (LUISS - Libera Università Internazionale degli Studi Sociali Guido Carli [Roma])

Abstract

We propose a model, which nests a susceptible-infected-recovered-deceased (SIRD) epidemic model into a dynamic macroeconomic equilibrium framework with agents' mobility. The latter affect both their income and their probability of infecting and being infected. Strategic complementarities among individual mobility choices drive the evolution of aggregate economic activity, while infection externalities caused by individual mobility affect disease diffusion. The continuum of rational forward-looking agents coordinates on the Nash equilibrium of a discrete time, finite-state, infinite-horizon Mean Field Game. We prove the existence of an equilibrium and provide a recursive construction method for the search of an equilibrium(a), which also guides our numerical investigations. We calibrate the model by using Italian experience on COVID-19 epidemic and we discuss policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgio Fabbri & Salvatore Federico & Davide Fiaschi & Fausto Gozzi, 2024. "Mobility decisions, economic dynamics and epidemic," Post-Print hal-04153998, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04153998
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-023-01485-1
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04153998v1
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    Cited by:

    1. Thuilliez, Josselin & Touré, Nouhoum, 2024. "Opinions and vaccination during an epidemic," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    2. Yoshioka, Hidekazu, 2025. "Generalized replicator dynamics based on mean-field pairwise comparison dynamic," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 200-220.
    3. Davide Torre & Simone Marsiglio & Franklin Mendivil & Fabio Privileggi, 2024. "Stochastic disease spreading and containment policies under state-dependent probabilities," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 127-168, February.
    4. Josselin Thuilliez & Nouhoum Touré, 2024. "Opinions and vaccination during an epidemic," Post-Print hal-04490900, HAL.
    5. Daria Ghilli & Cristiano Ricci & Giovanni Zanco, 2024. "A mean field game model for COVID-19 with human capital accumulation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 533-560, February.
    6. Hippolyte d’Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Dramane Coulibaly & Rodolphe Desbordes, 2024. "Covid-19 and mobility: determinant or consequence?," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 261-282, February.
    7. Alexander Dietrich & Wilhelm Kohler & Gernot Müller, 2025. "Pandemics, public policy, and Peltzman effects," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 79(3), pages 889-910, May.
    8. Raouf Boucekkine & Ted Loch-Temzelides, 2024. "Introduction to the special issue on mathematical economic epidemiology models," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 1-7, February.
    9. Konstantin Kogan & Fouad El Ouardighi & Avi Herbon, 2024. "The economic impact of lockdown and bounded treatment capability for an epidemic without vaccine," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 283-306, February.
    10. Wen-Tai Hsu & Hsuan-Chih (Luke) Lin & Han Yang, 2024. "Long-run belief-scarring effects of COVID-19 in a global economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 78(3), pages 709-752, November.
    11. Alessandro Calvia & Fausto Gozzi & Francesco Lippi & Giovanni Zanco, 2024. "A simple planning problem for COVID-19 lockdown: a dynamic programming approach," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 169-196, February.
    12. Josselin Thuilliez & Nouhoum Touré, 2024. "Opinions and vaccination during an epidemic," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-04490900, HAL.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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