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Loan guarantees, bank lending and credit risk reallocation

Author

Listed:
  • Altavilla, Carlo
  • Ellul, Andrew
  • Pagano, Marco
  • Polo, Andrea
  • Vlassopoulos, Thomas

Abstract

Do banks extending government-guaranteed loans simultaneously reduce their risk exposure to firms? Using unique euro-area credit register data and the COVID-19 guarantee programs as a laboratory, we find that 1 euro of guaranteed lending was associated with a reduction of 28 cents in non-guaranteed credit, relative to other banks lending to the same firm. Substitution was highest for riskier and smaller firms in more affected sectors and for stronger banks. Nevertheless, banks offered cheaper credit and longer maturities to guaranteed loan recipients, especially more fragile ones. This improvement in lending terms is the flipside of credit substitution.

Suggested Citation

  • Altavilla, Carlo & Ellul, Andrew & Pagano, Marco & Polo, Andrea & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2025. "Loan guarantees, bank lending and credit risk reallocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:172:y:2025:i:c:s0304405x2500145x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104137
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

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