IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v145y2022i3p725-761.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Did the paycheck protection program hit the target?

Author

Listed:
  • Granja, João
  • Makridis, Christos
  • Yannelis, Constantine
  • Zwick, Eric

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of financial intermediation and the economic effects of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), a large and novel small business support program that was part of the initial policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. We use loan-level microdata for all PPP loans and high-frequency administrative employment data to present three main findings. First, banks played an important role in mediating program targeting, which helps explain why some funds initially flowed to regions that were less adversely affected by the pandemic. Second, we exploit regional heterogeneity in lending relationships and individual firm-loan matched data to study the role of banks in explaining the employment effects of the PPP. We find the short- and medium-term employment effects of the program were small compared to the program’s size. Third, many firms used the loans to make non-payroll fixed payments and build up savings buffers, which can account for small employment effects and likely reflects precautionary motives in the face of heightened uncertainty. Limited targeting in terms of who was eligible likely also led to many inframarginal firms receiving funds and to a low correlation between regional PPP funding and shock severity. Our findings illustrate how business liquidity support programs affect firm behavior and local economic activity, and how policy transmission depends on the agents delegated to deploy it.

Suggested Citation

  • Granja, João & Makridis, Christos & Yannelis, Constantine & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Did the paycheck protection program hit the target?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 725-761.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:145:y:2022:i:3:p:725-761
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.05.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X22001131
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.05.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Labor Markets During the Covid-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7rx7t91p, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Scott R Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 834-862.
    3. Gallipoli, Giovanni & Makridis, Christos A., 2018. "Structural transformation and the rise of information technology," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 91-110.
    4. Sumit Agarwal & Gene Amromin & Itzhak Ben-David & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2017. "Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(3), pages 654-712.
    5. Raj Chetty & John N Friedman & Michael Stepner & Opportunity Insights Team & Camille Baker & Harvey Barnhard & Matt Bell & Gregory Bruich & Tina Chelidze & Lucas Chu & Westley Cineus & Sebi Devlin-Fol, 2024. "The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(2), pages 829-889.
    6. David Berger & Nicholas Turner & Eric Zwick, 2020. "Stimulating Housing Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 277-321, February.
    7. Casey B. Mulligan, 2020. "Economic Activity and the Value of Medical Innovation during a Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 27060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. DiNardo, John & Fortin, Nicole M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1001-1044, September.
    9. Allcott, Hunt & Boxell, Levi & Conway, Jacob & Gentzkow, Matthew & Thaler, Michael & Yang, David, 2020. "Polarization and public health: Partisan differences in social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    10. Natalie Cox & Peter Ganong & Pascal Noel & Joseph Vavra & Arlene Wong & Diana Farrell & Fiona Greig & Erica Deadman, 2020. "Initial Impacts of the Pandemic on Consumer Behavior: Evidence from Linked Income, Spending, and Savings Data," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 35-82.
    11. Scott R. Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis, 2023. "Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(6), pages 2271-2304.
    12. Andrew G. Atkeson & Adrien d’Avernas & Andrea L. Eisfeldt & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2019. "Government Guarantees and the Valuation of American Banks," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 81-145.
    13. John Barrios & Michael Minnis & William Minnis & Joost Sijthoff, 2020. "Assessing the Payroll Protection Program: A Framework and Preliminary Results," Working Papers 2020-63, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    14. Leigh A. Riddick & Toni M. Whited, 2009. "The Corporate Propensity to Save," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1729-1766, August.
    15. Dimitris Papanikolaou & Lawrence D W Schmidt, 2022. "Working Remotely and the Supply-Side Impact of COVID-19 [The unprecedented stock market reaction to COVID-19]," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 53-111.
    16. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1998. "Private and Public Supply of Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 1-40, February.
    17. John M. Barrios & Efraim Benmelech & Yael V. Hochberg & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2020. "Civic Capital and Social Distancing during the Covid-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 27320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Eric Zwick, 2021. "The Costs of Corporate Tax Complexity," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 467-500, May.
    19. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    20. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2012. "The Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from the 2009 Cash for Clunkers Program," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1107-1142.
    21. Glenn Hubbard & Michael R. Strain, 2020. "Has the Paycheck Protection Program Succeeded?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(3 (Fall)), pages 335-390.
    22. John M. Barrios & Yael Hochberg, 2020. "Risk Perception Through the Lens of Politics in the Time of the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 27008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1777-1804 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Gale, William G, 1991. "Economic Effects of Federal Credit Programs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 133-152, March.
    25. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    26. Niels Joachim Gormsen & Ralph S J Koijen & Nikolai Roussanov, 0. "Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 574-597.
    27. Raj Chetty, 2008. "Moral Hazard versus Liquidity and Optimal Unemployment Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 173-234, April.
    28. Wenzhi Ding & Ross Levine & Chen Lin & Wensi Xie, 2020. "Social Distancing and Social Capital: Why U.S. Counties Respond Differently to COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Peter Ganong & Pascal Noel, 2018. "Liquidity vs. Wealth in Household Debt Obligations: Evidence from Housing Policy in the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 24964, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Zoë B. Cullen & Edward L. Glaeser & Michael Luca & Christopher T. Stanton, 2020. "How Are Small Businesses Adjusting to COVID-19? Early Evidence from a Survey," NBER Working Papers 26989, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2014. "The Employment Effects of Credit Market Disruptions: Firm-level Evidence from the 2008-9 Financial Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 1-59.
    32. Deborah Lucas, 2016. "Credit Policy as Fiscal Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 1-57.
    33. Tetyana Balyuk & Nagpurnanand R. Prabhala & Manju Puri, 2020. "Indirect Costs of Government Aid and Intermediary Supply Effects: Lessons From the Paycheck Protection Program," NBER Working Papers 28114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Callum Jones & Thomas Philippon & Venky Venkateswaran, 2021. "Optimal Mitigation Policies in a Pandemic: Social Distancing and Working from Home [A simple planning problem for covid-19 lockdown]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5188-5223.
    35. Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel & Darmouni, Olivier & Luck, Stephan & Plosser, Matthew, 2022. "Bank liquidity provision across the firm size distribution," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 908-932.
    36. Scott, Dana & Finamor, Lucas, 2020. "Employment Effects of Unemployment Insurance Generosity During the Pandemic," MPRA Paper 102390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. João Granja & Christian Leuz & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2022. "Going the Extra Mile: Distant Lending and Credit Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1259-1324, April.
    38. Bryan Kelly & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2016. "Too-Systemic-to-Fail: What Option Markets Imply about Sector-Wide Government Guarantees," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1278-1319, June.
    39. Casey B. Mulligan, 2020. "Economic Activity and the Value of Medical Innovation during a Pandemic," Working Papers 2020-48, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    40. Claire Lelarge & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2010. "Entrepreneurship and Credit Constraints: Evidence from a French Loan Guarantee Program," NBER Chapters, in: International Differences in Entrepreneurship, pages 243-273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Cynthia L. Doniger & Benjamin S. Kay, 2021. "Ten Days Late and Billions of Dollars Short: The Employment Effects of Delays in Paycheck Protection Program Financing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    42. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    43. Gale, William G., 1990. "Federal lending and the market for credit," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 177-193, July.
    44. Alexander W. Bartik & Zoe B. Cullen & Edward L. Glaeser & Michael Luca & Christopher T. Stanton & Adi Sunderam, 2020. "When Should Public Programs be Privately Administered? Theory and Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program," NBER Working Papers 27623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Goolsbee, Austan & Syverson, Chad, 2021. "Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    46. Raj Chetty, 2008. "Moral Hazard versus Liquidity and Optimal Unemployment Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 173-234, April.
    47. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    48. Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Feng Lin & Jesse Rothstein & Matthew Unrath, 2020. "Measuring the Labor Market at the Onset of the COVID-19 Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 239-268;316.
    49. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    50. Humphries, John Eric & Neilson, Christopher A. & Ulyssea, Gabriel, 2020. "Information frictions and access to the Paycheck Protection Program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    51. David Autor & David Cho & Leland D. Crane & Mita Goldar & Byron Lutz & Joshua Montes & William B. Peterman & David Ratner & Daniel Villar & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2022. "The $800 Billion Paycheck Protection Program: Where Did the Money Go and Why Did It Go There?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 55-80, Spring.
    52. Eric Zwick & James Mahon, 2017. "Tax Policy and Heterogeneous Investment Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 217-248, January.
    53. Smith, Bruce, 1983. "Limited Information, Credit Rationing, and Optimal Government Lending Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 305-318, June.
    54. repec:aei:rpaper:1008582843 is not listed on IDEAS
    55. Christopher L. House & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2008. "Temporary Investment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence from Bonus Depreciation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 737-768, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    2. Bachas, Natalie & Kim, Olivia S. & Yannelis, Constantine, 2021. "Loan guarantees and credit supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 872-894.
    3. Horvath, Akos & Kay, Benjamin & Wix, Carlo, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and consumer credit: Evidence from credit card data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Gustavo Joaquim & J. Christina Wang, 2022. "What Do 25 Million Records of Small Businesses Say about the Effects of the PPP?," Working Papers 22-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    5. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Xuan Wang, 2023. "Support for small businesses amid COVID‐19," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(358), pages 612-652, April.
    6. Tomaz Cajner & Leland D. Crane & Ryan A. Decker & John Grigsby & Adrian Hamins-Puertolas & Erik Hurst & Christopher Kurz & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2020. "The US Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 3-33.
    7. Michael Barnett & Greg Buchak & Constantine Yannelis, 2023. "Epidemic responses under uncertainty," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 120(2), pages 2208111120-, January.
    8. Diane Alexander & Ezra Karger, 2023. "Do Stay-at-Home Orders Cause People to Stay at Home? Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders on Consumer Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(4), pages 1017-1027, July.
    9. Kong, Edward & Prinz, Daniel, 2020. "Disentangling policy effects using proxy data: Which shutdown policies affected unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    10. Scott R. Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis, 2023. "Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(6), pages 2271-2304.
    11. Barrot, Jean-Noël & Bonelli, Maxime & Grassi, Basile & Sauvagnat, Julien, 2024. "Causal effects of closing businesses in a pandemic," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    12. Marsh, W. Blake & Sharma, Padma, 2024. "Loan guarantees in a crisis: An antidote to a credit crunch?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    13. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4jn1x65h, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    14. Mitman, Kurt & Hanley, Douglas & Bognanni, Mark & Kolliner, Daniel, 2020. "Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 15310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Ricardo J Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2021. "A Model of Endogenous Risk Intolerance and LSAPs: Asset Prices and Aggregate Demand in a “COVID-19” Shock [Financial intermediaries and the cross-section of asset returns]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5522-5580.
    16. Sauvagnat, Julien & Barrot, Jean-Noël & Grassi, Basile, 2020. "Estimating the costs and benefits of mandated business closures in a pandemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 14757, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S," NBER Working Papers 27794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Doniger, Cynthia L. & Kay, Benjamin, 2023. "Long-lived employment effects of delays in emergency financing for small businesses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 78-91.
    19. Painter, Marcus & Qiu, Tian, 2021. "Political beliefs affect compliance with government mandates," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 688-701.
    20. Christopher Cotton & Bahman Kashi & Huw Lloyd‐Ellis & Frederic Tremblay & Brett Crowley, 2022. "Quantifying the economic impacts of COVID‐19 policy responses on Canada's provinces in (almost) real time," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 406-445, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    PPP; Fiscal stimulus; Banking; Small business; Policy targeting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:145:y:2022:i:3:p:725-761. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.