Too-Systemic-To-Fail: What Option Markets Imply About Sector-wide Government Guarantees
We examine the pricing of financial crash insurance during the 2007-2009 financial crisis in U.S. option markets. A large amount of aggregate tail risk is missing from the price of financial sector crash insurance during the financial crisis. The difference in costs of out-of-the-money put options for individual banks, and puts on the financial sector index, increases fourfold from its pre-crisis 2003-2007 level. We provide evidence that a collective government guarantee for the financial sector, which lowers index put prices far more than those of individual banks, explains the divergence in the basket-index put spread.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- O'Hara, Maureen & Shaw, Wayne, 1990. " Deposit Insurance and Wealth Effects: The Value of Being "Too Big to Fail."," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1587-1600, December.
- David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Ian Martin, 2009.
"Disasters implied by equity index options,"
NBER Working Papers
15240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Ian Martin, 2009. "Disasters Implied by Equity Index Options," Working Papers 09-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Backus, David & Chernov, Mikhail & Martin, Ian, 2009. "Disasters implied by equity index options," CEPR Discussion Papers 7416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Longstaff, Francis A. & Piazzesi, Monika, 2004.
"Corporate earnings and the equity premium,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 401-421, December.
- Gourio, François, 2008.
"Time-series predictability in the disaster model,"
Finance Research Letters,
Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 191-203, December.
- François Gourio, 2008. "Time-series predictability in the disaster model," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-016, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Barro, Robert, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," Scholarly Articles 3208215, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
- Darrell Duffie, 2010. "Presidential Address: Asset Price Dynamics with Slow-Moving Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1237-1267, 08.
- Gary Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2009.
"Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
amz2358, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2009.
- Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
- Gary Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2010. "Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo," NBER Chapters, in: Market Institutions and Financial Market Risk National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973, April.
- Priyank Gandhi & Hanno Lustig, 2010. "Size Anomalies in U.S. Bank Stock Returns: A Fiscal Explanation," NBER Working Papers 16553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stefano Giglio, 2011. "Credit default swap spreads and systemic financial risk," Proceedings 1122, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Xavier Gabaix, 2012.
"Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
- Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," NBER Working Papers 13724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2010.
"Why Does the Treasury Issue Tips? The Tips-Treasury Bond Puzzle,"
NBER Working Papers
16358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hanno Lustig, 2011. "Why Does the Treasury Issue TIPS? The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle," 2011 Meeting Papers 1443, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Joost Driessen & Pascal J. Maenhout & Grigory Vilkov, 2009. "The Price of Correlation Risk: Evidence from Equity Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1377-1406, 06.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9023. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.