IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed011/1285.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Too-Systemic-To-Fail: What Option Markets Imply About Sector-wide Government Guarantees

Author

Listed:
  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

    (NYU Stern)

  • Hanno Lustig

    (UCLA Anderson)

  • Bryan Kelly

    (University of Chicago Booth)

Abstract

Investors in option markets perceive the financial sector to be too-systemic-to-fail. They price in a substantial collective government bailout guarantee, which puts a floor on the value of the financial sector as a whole, but not on its individual members. The guarantee makes put options on the financial sector index cheap relative to put options on its member banks. The basket-index put spread rises fourfold from 0.8 cents per dollar insured before the financial crisis to 3.8 cents during the crisis for deep out-of-the-money options. The spread peaks at 12 cents per dollar, or 70% of the value of the index put. The rise in the put spread cannot be attributed to an increase in idiosyncratic risk because the correlation of stock returns increased during the crisis. Sector-wide tail risk, partially absorbed by the government's collective guarantee for the financial sector, lowers the index put prices but not the individual put prices, and hence can explain the basket-index spread. A structural model quantitatively matches these facts and indicates that as much as half of the value of the financial sector during the crisis. The model solves the problem of how to measure systemic risk in a world where the government distorts market prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Hanno Lustig & Bryan Kelly, 2011. "Too-Systemic-To-Fail: What Option Markets Imply About Sector-wide Government Guarantees," 2011 Meeting Papers 1285, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:1285
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2011/paper_1285.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Torben G. Andersen & Nicola Fusari & Viktor Todorov, 2015. "Parametric Inference and Dynamic State Recovery From Option Panels," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(3), pages 1081-1145, May.
    2. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Ian Martin, 2011. "Disasters Implied by Equity Index Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 1969-2012, December.
    3. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2010. "Why Does the Treasury Issue Tips? The Tips-Treasury Bond Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    5. Panageas, Stavros, 2010. "Bailouts, the incentive to manage risk, and financial crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 296-311, March.
    6. Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2011. "Margin-based Asset Pricing and Deviations from the Law of One Price," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1980-2022.
    7. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    8. O'Hara, Maureen & Shaw, Wayne, 1990. "Deposit Insurance and Wealth Effects: The Value of Being "Too Big to Fail."," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1587-1600, December.
    9. Kareken, John H & Wallace, Neil, 1978. "Deposit Insurance and Bank Regulation: A Partial-Equilibrium Exposition," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 413-438, July.
    10. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Fan Yang, 2012. "On the Relative Pricing of Long-Maturity Index Options and Collateralized Debt Obligations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 1983-2014, December.
    11. Joost Driessen & Pascal J. Maenhout & Grigory Vilkov, 2009. "The Price of Correlation Risk: Evidence from Equity Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1377-1406, June.
    12. Mark Broadie & Mikhail Chernov & Michael Johannes, 2007. "Model Specification and Risk Premia: Evidence from Futures Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1453-1490, June.
    13. Darrell Duffie, 2010. "Presidential Address: Asset Price Dynamics with Slow‐Moving Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1237-1267, August.
    14. Merton, Robert C., 1977. "An analytic derivation of the cost of deposit insurance and loan guarantees An application of modern option pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-11, June.
    15. Lucas, Deborah & McDonald, Robert L., 2006. "An options-based approach to evaluating the risk of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 155-176, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bai, Jennie & Goldstein, Robert S. & Yang, Fan, 2019. "The leverage effect and the basket-index put spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 186-205.
    2. Bai, Jennie & Goldstein, Robert S. & Yang, Fan, 2020. "Is the credit spread puzzle a myth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 297-319.
    3. Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2016. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 126-140.
    4. Mark Mink & Sebastiaan Pool, 2018. "Bank Recapitalizations, Credit Supply, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," DNB Working Papers 616, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2019. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3449-3469, August.
    6. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    7. Neumann, Maximilian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2016. "Jump and variance risk premia in the S&P 500," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 72-83.
    8. Stefan Nagel & Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2019. "Bank Risk Dynamics and Distance to Default," NBER Working Papers 25807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Michael C. Fu & Bingqing Li & Rongwen Wu & Tianqi Zhang, 2020. "Option Pricing Under a Discrete-Time Markov Switching Stochastic Volatility with Co-Jump Model," Papers 2006.15054, arXiv.org.
    10. Soumaré, Issouf & Lai, Van Son, 2016. "An analysis of government loan guarantees and direct investment through public-private partnerships," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 508-519.
    11. Acharya, Viral & Anginer, Deniz & Warburton, Joe, 2016. "The End of Market Discipline? Investor Expectations of Implicit Government Guarantees," MPRA Paper 79700, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Semir Ben Ammar, 2020. "Catastrophe Risk and the Implied Volatility Smile," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(2), pages 381-405, June.
    13. Mierzejewski, Fernando, 2008. "The optimal liquidity principle with restricted borrowing," MPRA Paper 12549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Priyank Gandhi & Hanno Lustig, 2010. "Size Anomalies in U.S. Bank Stock Returns: A Fiscal Explanation," NBER Working Papers 16553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Andreas Blöchlinger, 2018. "Credit Rating and Pricing: Poles Apart," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(2), pages 1-26, May.
    16. Gong, Di & Wagner, Wolf, 2016. "Systemic risk-taking at banks: Evidence from the pricing of syndicated loans," CEPR Discussion Papers 11150, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," NBER Working Papers 19611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Zhiguo He & Paymon Khorrami & Zhaogang Song, 2019. "Commonality in Credit Spread Changes: Dealer Inventory and Intermediary Distress," NBER Working Papers 26494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. David Bates & Roger Craine, 1998. "Valuing the Futures Market Clearinghouse's Default Exposure During the 1987 Crash," NBER Working Papers 6505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Lee, Shih-Cheng & Lin, Chien-Ting & Tsai, Ming-Shann, 2015. "The pricing of deposit insurance in the presence of systematic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-11.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed011:1285. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.