IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v106y2016i6p1278-1319.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Too-Systemic-to-Fail: What Option Markets Imply about Sector-Wide Government Guarantees

Author

Listed:
  • Bryan Kelly
  • Hanno Lustig
  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Abstract

We examine the pricing of financial crash insurance during the 2007-2009 financial crisis in US option markets, and we show that a large amount of aggregate tail risk is missing from the cost of financial sector crash insurance during the crisis. The difference in costs between out-of-the-money put options for individual banks and puts on the financial sector index increases four-fold from its precrisis 2003-2007 level. We provide evidence that a collective government guarantee for the financial sector lowers index put prices far more than those of individual banks and explains the increase in the basket-index put spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryan Kelly & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2016. "Too-Systemic-to-Fail: What Option Markets Imply about Sector-Wide Government Guarantees," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1278-1319, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:106:y:2016:i:6:p:1278-1319
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20120389
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20120389
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=Hw3hnKV0l0oX4tRywfwxXAHI9JtH2nrr
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/data/10606/20120389_data.zip
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=XLbyLK-J4SBhFu3eaic4EFoBbkq0jXqU
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Torben G. Andersen & Nicola Fusari & Viktor Todorov, 2015. "Parametric Inference and Dynamic State Recovery From Option Panels," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(3), pages 1081-1145, May.
    2. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Ian Martin, 2011. "Disasters Implied by Equity Index Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 1969-2012, December.
    3. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2010. "Why Does the Treasury Issue Tips? The Tips-Treasury Bond Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Deborah Lucas, 2010. "Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number luca07-1, March.
    5. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    6. Panageas, Stavros, 2010. "Bailouts, the incentive to manage risk, and financial crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 296-311, March.
    7. Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2011. "Margin-based Asset Pricing and Deviations from the Law of One Price," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1980-2022.
    8. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    9. O'Hara, Maureen & Shaw, Wayne, 1990. "Deposit Insurance and Wealth Effects: The Value of Being "Too Big to Fail."," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1587-1600, December.
    10. Kareken, John H & Wallace, Neil, 1978. "Deposit Insurance and Bank Regulation: A Partial-Equilibrium Exposition," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 413-438, July.
    11. Lucas, Deborah (ed.), 2010. "Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226496580, December.
    12. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Fan Yang, 2012. "On the Relative Pricing of Long-Maturity Index Options and Collateralized Debt Obligations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 1983-2014, December.
    13. Joost Driessen & Pascal J. Maenhout & Grigory Vilkov, 2009. "The Price of Correlation Risk: Evidence from Equity Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1377-1406, June.
    14. Mark Broadie & Mikhail Chernov & Michael Johannes, 2007. "Model Specification and Risk Premia: Evidence from Futures Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1453-1490, June.
    15. Darrell Duffie, 2010. "Presidential Address: Asset Price Dynamics with Slow‐Moving Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1237-1267, August.
    16. Merton, Robert C., 1977. "An analytic derivation of the cost of deposit insurance and loan guarantees An application of modern option pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-11, June.
    17. Lucas, Deborah & McDonald, Robert L., 2006. "An options-based approach to evaluating the risk of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 155-176, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bai, Jennie & Goldstein, Robert S. & Yang, Fan, 2019. "The leverage effect and the basket-index put spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 186-205.
    2. Andrew G. Atkeson & Adrien d’Avernas & Andrea L. Eisfeldt & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2019. "Government Guarantees and the Valuation of American Banks," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 81-145.
    3. Stefan Nagel & Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2020. "Banks’ Risk Dynamics and Distance to Default," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2421-2467.
    4. Bai, Jennie & Goldstein, Robert S. & Yang, Fan, 2020. "Is the credit spread puzzle a myth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 297-319.
    5. Deborah Lucas & Robert McDonald, 2010. "Valuing Government Guarantees: Fannie and Freddie Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk, pages 131-154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Mark Mink & Sebastiaan Pool, 2018. "Bank Recapitalizations, Credit Supply, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," DNB Working Papers 616, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    7. Chirinko, Robert, 2023. "What went wrong? The Puerto Rican debt crisis, the “Treasury Put,” and the failure of market discipline," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2016. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 126-140.
    9. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2019. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3449-3469, August.
    10. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2013. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 38-94.
    11. Neumann, Maximilian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2016. "Jump and variance risk premia in the S&P 500," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 72-83.
    12. Michael C. Fu & Bingqing Li & Rongwen Wu & Tianqi Zhang, 2020. "Option Pricing Under a Discrete-Time Markov Switching Stochastic Volatility with Co-Jump Model," Papers 2006.15054, arXiv.org.
    13. Lucas, Deborah & Moore, Damien, 2019. "The student loan consolidation option," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1-12.
    14. Acharya, Viral & Anginer, Deniz & Warburton, Joe, 2016. "The End of Market Discipline? Investor Expectations of Implicit Government Guarantees," MPRA Paper 79700, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Zhang, Ran & Li, Yifei & Tian, Yuan, 2022. "Corporate bonds with implicit government guarantees," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    16. McDonald, Robert L., 2013. "Contingent capital with a dual price trigger," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 230-241.
    17. Andreas Blöchlinger, 2018. "Credit Rating and Pricing: Poles Apart," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-26, May.
    18. Zhiguo He & Paymon Khorrami & Zhaogang Song, 2022. "Commonality in Credit Spread Changes: Dealer Inventory and Intermediary Distress," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(10), pages 4630-4673.
    19. Robert A. Jarrow, 1999. "In Honor of the Nobel Laureates Robert C. Merton and Myron S. Scholes: A Partial Differential Equation That Changed the World," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 229-248, Fall.
    20. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," NBER Working Papers 19611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:106:y:2016:i:6:p:1278-1319. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.