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Is the credit spread puzzle a myth?

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  • Bai, Jennie
  • Goldstein, Robert S.
  • Yang, Fan

Abstract

We revisit Feldhütter and Schaefer (FS, 2018), who report evidence of a “credit spread puzzle” for high-yield but not investment-grade bonds. We show their results are reversed when their model is calibrated to market values of debt (as required by theory) rather than book values. We then demonstrate that using credit spreads rather than historical default rates to identify the default boundary provides the statistical power necessary to reject their assumption that firm dynamics follow geometric Brownian motion. A large market price of jump risk is required to match historical default rates, which generates a credit spread puzzle for investment-grade but not high-yield bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Bai, Jennie & Goldstein, Robert S. & Yang, Fan, 2020. "Is the credit spread puzzle a myth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 297-319.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:137:y:2020:i:2:p:297-319
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.02.009
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    1. Jorge Cruz Lopez & Alfredo Ibanez, 2020. "European Puts, Credit Protection, and Endogenous Default," University of Western Ontario, Departmental Research Report Series 20205, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    2. Bernhardt, Dan & Koufopoulos, Kostas & Trigilia, Giulio, 2022. "Separating equilibria, underpricing and security design," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 788-801.
    3. Luca Benzoni & Lorenzo Garlappi & Robert Goldstein, 2023. "Incomplete Information, Debt Issuance, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(7), pages 4331-4352, July.
    4. Nishihara, Michi & Shibata, Takashi & Zhang, Chuanqian, 2023. "Corporate investment, financing, and exit model with an earnings-based borrowing constraint," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Korangi, Kamesh & Mues, Christophe & Bravo, Cristián, 2023. "A transformer-based model for default prediction in mid-cap corporate markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 308(1), pages 306-320.
    6. Dora Xia & Omar Zulaica, 2022. "The term structure of carbon premia," BIS Working Papers 1045, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Feldhütter, Peter & Schaefer, Stephen, 2023. "Debt dynamics and credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 497-535.
    8. Kamesh Korangi & Christophe Mues & Cristi'an Bravo, 2021. "A transformer-based model for default prediction in mid-cap corporate markets," Papers 2111.09902, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    9. Kim, Sung Ik, 2023. "A comparative study of firm value models: Default risk of corporate bonds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    10. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    11. Markus Herrmann & Martin Hibbeln, 2023. "Trading and liquidity in the catastrophe bond market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(2), pages 283-328, June.
    12. Murphy, Austin & Headley, Adrian, 2022. "An empirical evaluation of alternative fundamental models of credit spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    13. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Dispersed Information and Asset Prices," Working Papers hal-03118639, HAL.
    14. Albagli, Elias & Hellwig, Christian & Tsyvinski, Aleh, 2021. "Information Aggregation with Asymmetric Asset Payoffs," TSE Working Papers 21-1172, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Apr 2023.
    15. Chen, Hui & Xu, Yu & Yang, Jun, 2021. "Systematic risk, debt maturity, and the term structure of credit spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 770-799.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit spread puzzle; Structural models; Tail risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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