IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Credit risk and disaster risk

  • Francois Gourio

Credit spreads are large, volatile and countercyclical, and recent empirical work suggests that risk premia, not expected credit losses, are responsible for these features. Building on the idea that corporate debt, while safe in ordinary recessions, is exposed to economic depressions, this paper embeds a trade-off theory of capital structure into a real business cycle model with a small, exogenously time-varying risk of economic disaster. The model replicates the level, volatility and cyclicality of credit spreads, and variation in the corporate bond risk premium amplifies macroeconomic fluctuations in investment, employment and GDP.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/working_papers/2012/wp2012_07.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-2012-07.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2012-07
Contact details of provider: Postal:
P.O. Box 834, 230 South LaSalle Street, Chicago, Illinois 60690-0834

Phone: 312/322-5111
Fax: 312/322-5515
Web page: http://www.chicagofed.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/print_publication_order_form.cfm Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2003. "Consensus consumer and intertemporal asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs," Finance 0312001, EconWPA.
  2. Marika Santoro & Chao Wei, 2011. "Taxation, Investment and Asset Pricing," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(3), pages 443-454, July.
  3. Sanjiv Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2006. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults are Correlated," NBER Working Papers 11961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti & Alejandro Justiniano, 2009. "Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment," 2009 Meeting Papers 686, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Thomas Cooley & Ramon Marimon & Vicenzo Quadrini, 1999. "Aggregate consequences of limited contract enforceability," Economics Working Papers 843, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2003.
  6. Claudio Campanale & Rui Castro & Gian Luca Clementi, 2007. "Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with ChewÐDekel Preferences," Working Paper Series 07_07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  7. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Levered Equity Risk Premium and Credit Spreads: A Unified Framework," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 645-703, February.
  8. John Y. Campbell, 1998. "Asset Prices, Consumption, and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 6485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Darrell Duffie & Andreas Eckner & Guillaume Horel & Leandro Saita, 2009. "Frailty Correlated Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2089-2123, October.
  10. Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Predictive Regressions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Emmanuel Farhi, 2008. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," 2008 Meeting Papers 47, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
  13. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Robert Barro & José Ursúa, 2013. "Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 35-74, July.
  14. Rui Castro & Claudio Campanale & Gian Luca Clementi, 2007. "Asset Pricing in a General Equilibrium Production Economy with Chew-Dekel Risk Preferences," 2007 Meeting Papers 503, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. Georg Kaltenbrunner & Lars Lochstoer, 2007. "Long-Run Risk through Consumption Smoothing," 2007 Meeting Papers 25, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. Jianjun Miao & PENGFEI WANG, 2010. "Credit Risk and Business Cycles," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2010-033, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  17. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-57, April.
  18. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  19. Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April.
  20. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-66, October.
  21. Francisco Covas & Wouter J. Den Haan, 2011. "The Cyclical Behavior of Debt and Equity Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 877-99, April.
  22. Hackbarth, Dirk & Miao, Jianjun & Morellec, Erwan, 2006. "Capital structure, credit risk, and macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 519-550, December.
  23. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott(), 2007. "Great depressions of the twentieth century," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, number 2007gdott.
  24. Anisha Ghosh & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Can Rare Events Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle?," 2008 Meeting Papers 1090, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  25. Andrew B. Abel, 1998. "Risk Premia and Term Premia in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 6683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "Risk Aversion and the Labor Margin in Dynamic Equilibrium Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1663-91, June.
  27. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Martin Uribe, 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-013, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  28. Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci & Egon Zakrajsek, 2007. "Investment and the Cost of Capital: New Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-027, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  29. Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2010. "Do credit constraints amplify macroeconomic fluctuations?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  30. Thomas Tallarini, . "Risk-Sensitive Real Business Cycles," GSIA Working Papers 1997-35, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  31. François Gourio, 2008. "Time-series predictability in the disaster model," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-016, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  32. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: Enhancing Productivity (NBER-CEPR-TCER-Keio conference) National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Jessica Wachter, 2008. "Can time-varying risk of rare disasters explain aggregate stock market volatility?," 2008 Meeting Papers 944, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  34. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. " Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-52, September.
  35. Timothy Kehoe & Edward Prescott, 2002. "Data Appendix to Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Technical Appendices kehoe02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  36. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
  37. Lukas Schmid & Joao Gomes, 2009. "Equilibrium Credit Spreads and the Macroeconomy," 2009 Meeting Papers 1109, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  38. Dario Caldara & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Wen Yao, 2009. "Computing DSGE Models with Recursive Preferences," NBER Working Papers 15026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  40. Cordoba, Juan & Ripoll, Marla, 2002. "Credit Cycles Redux," Working Papers 2002-07, Rice University, Department of Economics.
    • Juan-Carlos Cordoba & Marla Ripoll, 2004. "Credit Cycles Redux," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1011-1046, November.
  41. Thomas Philippon, 2006. "The Bond Market's q," NBER Working Papers 12462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
  43. Francois Gourio, 2008. "Disasters and Recoveries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 68-73, May.
  44. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Ian Martin, 2009. "Disasters Implied by Equity Index Options," Working Papers 09-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  45. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, March.
  46. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks," Working Paper Series 2008-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  47. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  48. Brent Glover & Joao Gomes & Amir Yaron, . "Corporate Taxes, Leverage, and Business Cycles," GSIA Working Papers 2011-E24, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  49. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  50. Simon Gilchrist & Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 14863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2008. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 14313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  52. repec:dgr:kubcen:199554 is not listed on IDEAS
  53. Cochrane, John H. & Campbell, John, 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  54. Jaccard, Ivan, 2010. "Asset pricing, habit memory, and the labor market," Working Paper Series 1163, European Central Bank.
  55. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
  56. Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," NBER Working Papers 16151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Long Chen & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2009. "On the Relation Between the Credit Spread Puzzle and the Equity Premium Puzzle," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3367-3409, September.
  58. Jae Sim & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2010. "Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics," 2010 Meeting Papers 1285, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  59. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 2001. "Time-Varying Risk Premia and the Cost of Capital: An Alternative Implication of the Q Theory of Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 3103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  60. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, 05.
  61. Longstaff, Francis A. & Piazzesi, Monika, 2004. "Corporate earnings and the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 401-421, December.
  62. Robert J. Barro & Robert G. King, 1982. "Time-Separable Preference and Intertemporal-Substitution Models of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 0888, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  63. Joshua D. Coval & Jakub W. Jurek & Erik Stafford, 2009. "Economic Catastrophe Bonds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 628-66, June.
  64. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December.
  65. Claudio Campanale & Rui Castro & Gian Luca Clementi, 2007. "Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with Chew-Dekel Preferences," Working Papers 07-12, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  66. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
  67. Anne Epaulard & Aude Pommeret, 2003. "Recursive Utility, Endogenous Growth, and the Welfare Cost of Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(3), pages 672-684, July.
  68. Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2000. "Habit persistence, asset returns and the business cycle," Staff Report 280, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  69. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
  70. Levy, Amnon & Hennessy, Christopher, 2007. "Why does capital structure choice vary with macroeconomic conditions?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1545-1564, September.
  71. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Henry E. Siu & Ennio Stacchetti, 2005. "Fluctuations in Convex Models of Endogenous Growth I: Growth Effects," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(4), pages 780-804, October.
  72. Tom Krebs, 2003. "Human Capital Risk and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 709-744.
  73. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Henry E. Siu, 2005. "Fluctuations in Convex Models of Endogenous Growth II: Business Cycle Properties," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(4), pages 805-828, October.
  74. repec:rim:rimwps:07-07 is not listed on IDEAS
  75. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  76. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "Limited Asset Market Participation and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution," NBER Working Papers 8896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  77. Ian Martin, 2010. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing with Higher Cumulants," NBER Working Papers 16153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  78. Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," NBER Working Papers 10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  79. Lettau, M. & Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 1995. "Can Habit Formation be Reconciled with Business Cycle Facts?," Discussion Paper 1995-54, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  80. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "Limited Asset Market Participation and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 825-853, August.
  81. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
  82. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
  83. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Aggregate Dynamics of Capital Structure and Macroeconomic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(12), pages 4187-4241, December.
  84. George-Marios Angeletos, 2007. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Investment Risk and Aggregate Saving," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-30, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:

  1. Credit Risk and Disaster Risk (AEJ:MA 2013) in ReplicationWiki
  2. Canadian Macro Study Group

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2012-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bernie Flores)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.