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Time-series predictability in the disaster model

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  • Gourio, François

Abstract

This paper studies whether the Rietz-Barro "disaster" model, extended for a time-varying probability of disaster, can match the empirical evidence on predictability of stock returns. It is shown that when utility is CRRA, the model cannot replicate this evidence, regardless of parameter values. This motivates extending the disaster model to allow for Epstein-Zin utility. Analytical results show that when the probability of disaster is i.i.d., the model with Epstein-Zin utility can match the evidence on predictability qualitatively if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is greater than unity. The case of a persistent probability of disaster is studied numerically, with partial success.

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  • Gourio, François, 2008. "Time-series predictability in the disaster model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 191-203, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:5:y:2008:i:4:p:191-203
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    1. François Gourio, 2013. "Credit Risk and Disaster Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 1-34, July.
    2. Koulovatianos, Christos & Wieland, Volker, 2011. "Asset pricing under rational learning about rare disasters," IMFS Working Paper Series 46, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    3. Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The role of time‐varying rare disaster risks in predicting bond returns and volatility," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 327-340, July.
    4. Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Suleman, Tahir & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Time-varying rare disaster risks, oil returns and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 239-248.
    5. Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 987-1035, June.
    6. Huynh, Thanh D. & Nguyen, Thu Ha & Truong, Cameron, 2020. "Climate risk: The price of drought," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Gandhi, Priyank & Lustig, Hanno & Plazzi, Alberto, 2016. "Equity Is Cheap for Large Financial Institutions: The International Evidence," Research Papers 3454, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    8. Liu, Yan, 2021. "Index option returns and generalized entropy bounds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 1015-1036.
    9. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2014. "Rare Booms and Disasters in a Multi-sector Endowment Economy," NBER Working Papers 20062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jerry Tsai, 2013. "Rare Disasters and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economics Series Working Papers 665, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Gourio, François, 2012. "Macroeconomic implications of time-varying risk premia," Working Paper Series 1463, European Central Bank.
    12. Favero, Carlo A. & Tamoni, Andrea & Ortu, Fulvio & Yang, Haoxi, 2016. "Implications of Return Predictability across Horizons for Asset Pricing Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11645, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2013. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 799-906, Elsevier.
    14. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakos, 2014. "Learning about Disaster Risk: Joint Implications for Consumption and Asset Prices," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp507, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    15. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost, 2019. "Policy News and Stock Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 25720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Jim Dolmas, 2013. "Disastrous disappointments: asset-pricing with disaster risk and disappointment aversion," Working Papers 1309, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    17. Henk Berkman & Ben Jacobsen & John B. Lee, 2017. "Rare disaster risk and the expected equity risk premium," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(2), pages 351-372, June.
    18. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakoš, 2015. "Learning about Rare Disasters: Implications For Consumption and Asset Prices," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1053-1104.
    19. Alfonso Irarrazabal & Juan Carlos Parra-Alvarez, 2015. "Time-varying disaster risk models: An empirical assessment of the Rietz-Barro hypothesis," CREATES Research Papers 2015-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    20. Manela, Asaf & Moreira, Alan, 2017. "News implied volatility and disaster concerns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 137-162.
    21. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-2766, October.
    22. Berkman, Henk & Jacobsen, Ben & Lee, John B., 2011. "Time-varying rare disaster risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 313-332, August.
    23. Priyank Gandhi & Hanno Lustig, 2010. "Size Anomalies in U.S. Bank Stock Returns: A Fiscal Explanation," NBER Working Papers 16553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Alex Hsu & Francisco Palomino & Liang Qian, 2023. "Gone with the Vol: A Decline in Asset Return Predictability During the Great Moderation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 3025-3047, May.
    25. Kroencke, Tim A., 2022. "Recessions and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 61-77.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rare events Jumps Disasters Equity premium Return predictability;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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