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A Macroeconomic Model of Equities and Real, Nominal, and Defaultable Debt

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  • Eric Swanson

    (University of California, Irvine)

Abstract

Linkages between the real economy and financial markets can be very important, as evidenced by the 2007-09 financial crisis and European sovereign debt crisis. This paper develops a simple, structural macroeconomic model that is consistent with a wide variety of asset pricing facts, such as the size and variability of risk premia on equities, real and nominal government bonds, and corporate bonds, commonly referred to as the equity premium puzzle, bond premium puzzle, and credit spread puzzle, respectively. The paper makes two main contributions: First, it unifies a variety of asset pricing puzzles in a simple, structural asset pricing framework. Second, it shows how standard dynamic macroeconomic models can be brought into agreement with a range of asset prices, making it possible to use these models to study the linkages between risk premia in financial markets and the real economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Swanson, 2015. "A Macroeconomic Model of Equities and Real, Nominal, and Defaultable Debt," 2015 Meeting Papers 273, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed015:273
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 105-143, January.
    2. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Introduction to "Monetary Policy Rules"," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 1-14 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Roll, Richard, 1977. "A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 129-176, March.
    5. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    6. Fatih Guvenen, 2009. "A Parsimonious Macroeconomic Model for Asset Pricing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(6), pages 1711-1750, November.
    7. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Levered Equity Risk Premium and Credit Spreads: A Unified Framework," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 645-703, February.
    8. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula & Tyler Muir, 2014. "Financial Intermediaries and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2557-2596, December.
    9. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
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    11. Marin, Dalia & Verdier, Thierry, 2006. "Corporate Hierarchies and the Size of Nations: Theory and Evidence," Discussion Papers in Economics 1346, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    12. John Y. Campbell, 1986. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 785-803.
    13. Gary Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2012. "Getting Up to Speed on the Financial Crisis: A One-Weekend-Reader's Guide," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 128-150, March.
    14. Andreasen, Martin M., 2012. "An estimated DSGE model: Explaining variation in nominal term premia, real term premia, and inflation risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1656-1674.
    15. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
    16. Luis Viceira & Carolin Pflueger & John Campbell, 2014. "Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," 2014 Meeting Papers 137, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    2. Konstantinos Theodoridis & Haroon Mumtaz, 2015. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 101219932, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    3. Rahul Nath, 2018. "Flexible Labour, Income Effects, and Asset Prices," Economics Series Working Papers 851, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Volatility Co-movement and the Great Moderation. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 804, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "Fiscal Policy Shocks and Stock Prices in the United States," Working Papers 817, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. Rahul Nath, 2018. "Equity Pricing New Keynesian Models with Nominal Rigidities and Investment," Economics Series Working Papers 850, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. repec:eee:reveco:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:333-352 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Phuong Ngo & Francois Gourio, 2016. "Risk Premia at the ZLB: a macroeconomic interpretation," 2016 Meeting Papers 1585, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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