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Common and Country Specific Economic Uncertainty

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  • Haroon Mumtaz

    (Queen Mary University of London)

  • Konstantinos Theodoridis

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common component plays an important role in driving the time-varying volatility of nominal and financial variables. The cross-country co-movement in volatility of real and financial variables has increased over time with the common component becoming more important over the last decade. Simulations from a two-country DSGE model featuring Epstein Zin preferences suggest that increased globalisation and trade openness may be the driving force behind the increased cross-country correlation in volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Common and Country Specific Economic Uncertainty," Working Papers 752, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:752
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FAVAR; Stochastic Volatility; Uncertainty Shocks; DSGE Model;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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