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Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks

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  • Alessandri, Piergiorgio
  • Mumtaz, Haroon

Abstract

Credit markets are an important link in the propagation of economic uncertainty. We study the nexus between the two using a nonlinear VAR where uncertainty is captured by the volatility of the economy’s structural shocks and its transmission mechanism is allowed to change in periods of financial distress. We find that, in the USA, uncertainty shocks have recessionary effects at all times, but their impact on output is six times larger when the economy is going through a financial crisis. Uncertainty accounts for one percentage point of the contraction in industrial production observed in the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:101:y:2019:i:c:p:31-46
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.05.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Stochastic volatility; Financial markets; Threshold VARs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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