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Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty

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  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Ma, Jun
  • Risse, Marian
  • Wohar, Mark E.

Abstract

This paper analyses the role of a news-based measure of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in explaining time-varying co-movements in economic activity and volatility of 48 US states and 51 largest MSAs. In this regard, we, first, estimate a dynamic factor model with time-varying loadings and stochastic volatility (DFM-TV-SV). Then, in the second step, we use a quantile-on-quantile (QQ) predictive regression model to capture the effect of EPU on the common factor and stochastic volatility derived from the DFM-TV-SV for the states and MSAs. Our results show that EPU has a significant negative effect on the common economic activity of both the states and MASs, and it also significantly increases the common volatility. However, the impact of uncertainty varies substantially depending on the initial states (quantiles) of both common output or volatility and EPU. Thus, our results tend to suggest that policy design should be state-dependent.

Suggested Citation

  • Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:317-337
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.06.009
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    Cited by:

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    3. David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Spillovers across Macroeconomic, Financial and Real Estate Uncertainties: A Time-Varying Approach," Working Papers 201944, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta & Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Silva, 2018. "Forecasting Changes of Economic Inequality: A Boosting Approach," Working Papers 201868, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The Role of Real Estate Uncertainty in Predicting US Home Sales Growth: Evidence from a Quantiles-Based Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Working Papers 201936, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2018. "Dynamic connectedness of uncertainty across developed economies: A time-varying approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 63-75.
    7. repec:eee:ecolet:v:171:y:2018:i:c:p:63-71 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "On the transmission mechanism of country-specific and international economic uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from a TVP-VAR connectedness decomposition approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 63-71.
    9. Rangan Gupta & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "The Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks on a Panel of Advanced and Emerging Market Economies: The Role of Exchange Rate, Trade and Financial Channels," Working Papers 201857, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Common business cycles; Common stochastic volatility; Time-varying dynamic factor models; Quantile-on-quantile regressions;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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