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International comovements in inflation rates and country characteristics

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  • Neely, Christopher J.
  • Rapach, David E.

Abstract

Common shocks, similarities in central bank reaction functions, and international trade potentially produce common components in international inflation rates. This paper characterizes such links in international inflation rates with a dynamic latent factor model that decomposes 64 national inflation rates into world, regional, and idiosyncratic components. The world and regional components account for 35% and 16%, respectively, of annual inflation variability on average across countries, so that international influences together explain just over half of inflation variability. The importance of the world and regional components, however, differs substantially across countries. Economic policy choices and development measures strongly explain the cross-sectional variation in the relative importance of international influences. A subsample analysis reveals that the regional (world) factor increases in importance for a number of North American and European (Latin American and Asian) countries since 1980.

Suggested Citation

  • Neely, Christopher J. & Rapach, David E., 2011. "International comovements in inflation rates and country characteristics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1471-1490.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:7:p:1471-1490
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.07.009
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Dynamic latent factor model; Bayesian estimation; Policy choices; Development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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