Is East Asia an optimum currency area?
This paper assesses the empirical desirability of the East Asian economies to an alternative exchange rate arrangement (a monetary union) that can potentially enhance the exchange rate stability and credibility in the region. Specifically, the symmetry in macroeconomic disturbances of the East Asian economies is examined as satisfying one of the preconditions for forming an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). We extend the existing literature by improving the methodology of assessing the symmetry shocks in evaluating the suitability of a common currency area in the East Asian economies employing the Bayesian State-Space Based approach. We consider a model of an economy in which the output is influenced by global, regional and country-specific shocks. The importance of a common regional shock would provide a case for a regional common currency. This model allows us to examine regional and country-specific cycles simultaneously with the world business cycle. The importance of the shocks decomposition is that studying a subset of countries can lead one to believe that observed co-movement is particular to that subset of countries when it in fact is common to a much larger group of countries. In addition, the understanding of the sources of international economic fluctuations is important for making policy decisions. The falling share of country specific factor and the rising role of region factor indicate that East Asia has become increasingly favorable for a monetary union. However, the share of country-specific factor that is still significant implies that it could be costly to renounce individual currencies to advance into a monetary union in East Asia.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances,"
NBER Working Papers
2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2005.
"Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles,"
IMF Working Papers
05/211, International Monetary Fund.
- Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
- Kwan, C. H., 1998. "The theory of optimum currency areas and the possibility of forming a yen bloc in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 555-580.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993.
"A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience,"
in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 95-156
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Working Papers 4014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kiyotaka Sato & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2006. "Real Output Co-movements in East Asia: Any Evidence for a Monetary Union?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(12), pages 1671-1689, December.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
- Lee, Grace H.Y. & Azali, M., 2010.
"The endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area criteria in East Asia,"
Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 165-170, January.
- Grace H.Y. Lee & M. Azali, 2009. "THE ENDOGENEITY OF THE OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA CRITERIA IN EAST ASIa," Monash Economics Working Papers 15-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Allan W. Gregory & Allen C. Head & Jacques Raynauld, 1994.
"Measuring World Business Cycles,"
902, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Otrok, C. & Whiteman, C.H., 1996.
"Bayesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions in Iowa,"
96-14, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
- Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H, 1998. "Bayesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions in Iowa," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 997-1014, November.
- BAUWENS, Luc & LUBRANO, Michel, .
"Bayesian diagnostics for heterogeneity,"
CORE Discussion Papers RP
-963, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977.
"Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory,"
55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to estimate observable index model from Sargent-Sims(1977)," Statistical Software Components RTZ00126, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Obiyathulla Ismath Bacha, 2008. "A common currency area for ASEAN? issues and feasibility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 515-529.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry & Mauro, Paolo, 2000.
"On Regional Monetary Arrangements For ASEAN,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry & Mauro, Paolo, 2000. "On Regional Monetary Arrangements for ASEAN," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 121-148, June.
- Bayoumi, T. & Eichengreen, B., 1994. "One Money or Many? Analysing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Princeton Studies in International Economics 76, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989.
"New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Siddhartha Chib & Edward Greenberg, 1994.
"Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics,"
9408001, EconWPA, revised 24 Oct 1994.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 409-431, August.
- Junichi Goto & Koichi Hamada, 1994. "Economic Preconditions for Asian Regional Integration," NBER Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, NBER-EASE Volume 3, pages 359-388 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stoc93-1, August.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1994. "Bayes inference in regression models with ARMA (p, q) errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 183-206.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2009. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:2:p:87-95. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.