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The prospects of a monetary union in East Asia

  • Lee, Grace H.Y.
  • Koh, Sharon G.M.

This paper assesses the empirical desirability of the East Asian economies to form a monetary union. The Structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) method is employed to assess the nature of macroeconomic disturbances among the East Asian countries, as a preliminary guide in identifying potential candidates for forming an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). In comparison with European countries, East Asia has less symmetric underlying structural shocks but the speed of adjustment to shocks is much faster. The empirical results suggest that there exists a scope among some small sub-regions, comprising mainly of ASEAN countries, for potential monetary integration. The finding of an increased symmetry of shocks among countries after the Asian Financial crisis indicates that the regional policy-coordinating effort after the crisis has put the region on the right track if monetary union is a desired goal.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 29 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 96-102

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:2:p:96-102
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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  1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  2. Ricci, Luca Antonio, 2008. "A Model of an Optimum Currency Area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2, pages 1-31.
  3. Grace H.Y. Lee & M. Azali, 2009. "THE ENDOGENEITY OF THE OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA CRITERIA IN EAST ASIa," Monash Economics Working Papers 15-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  4. Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2009. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, January.
  5. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Tamim Bayoumi, 1994. "A Formal Model of Optimum Currency Areas," IMF Working Papers 94/42, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Obiyathulla Ismath Bacha, 2008. "A common currency area for ASEAN? issues and feasibility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 515-529.
  8. Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
  9. M Azali & R C Royfaizal & C Lee, 2009. "Japanese Yen as an Alternative Vehicle Currency in Asian Countries," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 6-16, May.
  10. M., Azali & Lee, Chin, 2009. "Asian Financial Integration during the Pre- and Post-crisis Periods," MPRA Paper 40656, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
  11. Junichi Goto & Koichi Hamada, 1994. "Economic Preconditions for Asian Regional Integration," NBER Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, NBER-EASE Volume 3, pages 359-388 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Zhaoyong Zhang & Kiyotaka Sato & Michael McAleer, 2004. "Is a monetary union feasible for East Asia?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1031-1043.
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