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Is a monetary union feasible for East Asia?

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  • Zhaoyong Zhang
  • Kiyotaka Sato
  • Michael McAleer

Abstract

The empirical suitability of the East Asian economies for potential monetary integration is assessed. The structural vector autoregression (VAR) method is employed to identify the underlying shocks using a three-variable VAR model across the East Asian economies. The estimates of the EEC are used as a benchmark to compare the size of the underlying shocks and the speed of adjustment to shocks in both regions to determine the feasibility of forming an optimum currency area (OCA) in East Asia. The empirical results do not display strong support for forming an OCA in the East Asian region. The results do imply, however, that some small subregions are potential candidates for OCAs, since their disturbances are correlated and small and these economies adjust rapidly to shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhaoyong Zhang & Kiyotaka Sato & Michael McAleer, 2004. "Is a monetary union feasible for East Asia?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1031-1043.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:10:p:1031-1043
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000246740
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    Cited by:

    1. Nagayasu, Jun, 2010. "Macroeconomic interdependence in East Asia," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 219-227, December.
    2. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Koh, Sharon G.M., 2012. "The prospects of a monetary union in East Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 96-102.
    3. Vu Tuan Khai, 2009. "Re-examining Symmetry of Shocks for East Asia: Results Using a VAR with Sign Restrictions," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-042, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Sato, Kiyotaka & Zhang, Zhaoyong & McAleer, Michael, 2011. "Identifying shocks in regionally integrated East Asian economies with structural VAR and block exogeneity," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1353-1364.
    5. Boldea, O. & Engwerda, J.C. & Michalak, T. & Plasmans, J.E.J. & Salmah, S., 2011. "A Simulation Study of an ASEAN Monetary Union (Replaces CentER DP 2010-100)," Other publications TiSEM e92b4cbf-8cde-4a19-83e2-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Alberto Coco & Andrea Silvestrini, 2017. "The nature and propagation of shocks in the euro area: a comparative SVAR analysis," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2), pages 95-114.
    7. Shen, Jiancheng & Selover, David D. & Li, Chao & Yousefi, Hamed, 2022. "An ocean apart? The effects of US business cycles on Chinese business cycles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 677-698.
    8. Md. Abdur Rahman Forhad, 2014. "How many currencies in Saarc countries? a multivariate structural var approach," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 48(4), pages 265-286, October-D.
    9. Mishra, Ritesh Kumar & Sharma, Chandan, 2010. "Real exchange rate behavior and optimum currency area in East Asia: Evidence from Generalized Purchasing Power Parity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 205-213, June.
    10. Engwerda, J. & Boldea, O. & Michalak, T. & Plasmans, J. & Salmah,, 2012. "A simulation study of an ASEAN monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1870-1890.
    11. Bashar, Omar H.M.N., 2012. "The dynamics of aggregate demand and supply shocks in ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 507-518.
    12. Eiji Ogawa & Kentaro Kawasaki, 2011. "Monetary Integration in East Asia," Chapters, in: Masahisa Fujita & Ikuo Kuroiwa & Satoru Kumagai (ed.), The Economics of East Asian Integration, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Sato, Kiyotaka & Zhang, Zhaoyong & Allen, David, 2009. "The suitability of a monetary union in East Asia: What does the cointegration approach tell?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2927-2937.
    14. Adom, Assandé Désiré & Sharma, Subhash C. & Morshed, A.K.M. Mahbub, 2010. "Economic integration in Africa," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 245-253, August.
    15. Zhang, Zhaoyong & Sato, Kiyotaka & McAleer, Michael, 2008. "Is Greater China a currency union?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 319-327.
    16. Ong, Sheue Li & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2018. "Regional or global shock? A global VAR analysis of Asian economic and financial integration," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 232-248.
    17. Binner, Jane & Chen, Shu-Heng & Lai, Ke-Hung & Mullineux, Andrew & Swofford, James L., 2011. "Do the ASEAN countries and Taiwan form a common currency area?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1429-1435.
    18. Genberg, Hans & Siklos, Pierre L., 2010. "Revisiting the shocking aspects of Asian monetary unification," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 445-455, October.
    19. Chen, Xiaofen, 2012. "The dampening effect of bank foreign liabilities on monetary policy: Revisiting monetary cooperation in East Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 412-427.
    20. Watanabe, Shingo & Ogura, Masanobu, 2010. "How far apart are the two ACUs from each other? Asian currency unit and Asian currency union," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 152-172, June.

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