Re-examining Symmetry of Shocks for East Asia: Results Using a VAR with Sign Restrictions
I revisit the hotly debated topic regarding the possibility of introducing a common currency for East Asia from the point of view of shock symmetry. I first point out a serious problem of the existing studies which use the VAR method with long-run restrictions developed by Blanchard and Quah (1989) in that the signs of the impulse response functions to the same structural shock are not necessarily consistent across the countries. This means that the high (low) correlations of structural shocks do not necessarily imply low (high) costs of a common currency area. To overcome this problem, I apply the VAR method with sign restrictions developed by Uhlig (2005). I used the AD-AS model to impose sign restrictions on the responses of GDP and CPI to demand and supply shocks. One main finding is that demand shocks are significantly positively correlated among almost all East Asian countries. But overall, East Asia as a whole is not suitable for a common currency because correlations of supply shocks are low.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2-1 Naka, Kunitachi City, Tokyo 186|
Web page: http://www.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cohen, Daniel & Wyplosz, Charles, 1989. "The European Monetary Union: An Agnostic Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2007.
"What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 512-549, March.
- Luca Dedola & Stefano Neri, 2006. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 607, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2004. "What Does A Technology Shock Do? A VAR Analysis with Model-based Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 4537, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2006. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Working Paper Series 0705, European Central Bank.
- Stefano Neri & Luca Dedola, 2004. "Are technology shocks contractionary? A Bayesian VAR analysis with priors on impulses responses," 2004 Meeting Papers 406, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Kiyotaka Sato & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2006. "Real Output Co-movements in East Asia: Any Evidence for a Monetary Union?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(12), pages 1671-1689, December.
- Zhaoyong Zhang & Kiyotaka Sato, 2008. "Whither A Currency Union in Greater China?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 355-370, July.
- Kim, David, 2007. "An East Asian currency union?: The empirical nature of macroeconomic shocks in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 847-866, December.
- Peersman, Gert & Straub, Roland, 2004.
"Technology shocks and robust sign restrictions in a euro area SVAR,"
Working Paper Series
0373, European Central Bank.
- Gert Peersman & Roland Straub, 2009. "Technology Shocks And Robust Sign Restrictions In A Euro Area Svar," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 727-750, 08.
- G. Peersman & R. Straub, 2005. "Technology Shocks and Robust Sign Restrictions in a Euro Area SVAR," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/288, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Zhaoyong Zhang & Kiyotaka Sato & Michael McAleer, 2004. "Is a monetary union feasible for East Asia?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1031-1043.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hst:ghsdps:gd08-042. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tatsuji Makino)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.