IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hst/ghsdps/gd08-042.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Re-examining Symmetry of Shocks for East Asia: Results Using a VAR with Sign Restrictions

Author

Listed:
  • Vu Tuan Khai

Abstract

I revisit the hotly debated topic regarding the possibility of introducing a common currency for East Asia from the point of view of shock symmetry. I first point out a serious problem of the existing studies which use the VAR method with long-run restrictions developed by Blanchard and Quah (1989) in that the signs of the impulse response functions to the same structural shock are not necessarily consistent across the countries. This means that the high (low) correlations of structural shocks do not necessarily imply low (high) costs of a common currency area. To overcome this problem, I apply the VAR method with sign restrictions developed by Uhlig (2005). I used the AD-AS model to impose sign restrictions on the responses of GDP and CPI to demand and supply shocks. One main finding is that demand shocks are significantly positively correlated among almost all East Asian countries. But overall, East Asia as a whole is not suitable for a common currency because correlations of supply shocks are low.

Suggested Citation

  • Vu Tuan Khai, 2009. "Re-examining Symmetry of Shocks for East Asia: Results Using a VAR with Sign Restrictions," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-042, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hst:ghsdps:gd08-042
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://gcoe.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/research/discussion/2008/pdf/gd08-042.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    3. Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2007. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 512-549, March.
    4. Torres,Francisco & Giavazzi,Francesco (ed.), 1993. "Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521440196, September.
    5. Zhaoyong Zhang & Kiyotaka Sato & Michael McAleer, 2004. "Is a monetary union feasible for East Asia?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1031-1043.
    6. Gert Peersman & Roland Straub, 2009. "Technology Shocks And Robust Sign Restrictions In A Euro Area Svar," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 727-750, August.
    7. Cohen, Daniel & Wyplosz, Charles, 1989. "The European Monetary Union: An Agnostic Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Zhaoyong Zhang & Kiyotaka Sato, 2008. "Whither A Currency Union in Greater China?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 355-370, July.
    9. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry & Mauro, Paolo, 2000. "On Regional Monetary Arrangements for ASEAN," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 121-148, June.
    10. Kim, David, 2007. "An East Asian currency union?: The empirical nature of macroeconomic shocks in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 847-866, December.
    11. Kiyotaka Sato & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2006. "Real Output Co‐movements in East Asia: Any Evidence for a Monetary Union?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(12), pages 1671-1689, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tuan Khai Vu, 2015. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from East Asia," Discussion Papers 31, Meisei University, School of Economics.
    2. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2018. "Meta‐Analysis of Chinese Business Cycle Correlation," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 385-410, August.
    3. Alberto Coco & Andrea Silvestrini, 2017. "The nature and propagation of shocks in the euro area: a comparative SVAR analysis," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2), pages 95-114.
    4. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Miyazawa, Kensuke & Vu, Tuan Khai, 2012. "News shocks and Japanese macroeconomic fluctuations," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 292-304.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sato, Kiyotaka & Zhang, Zhaoyong & Allen, David, 2009. "The suitability of a monetary union in East Asia: What does the cointegration approach tell?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2927-2937.
    2. Sato, Kiyotaka & Zhang, Zhaoyong & McAleer, Michael, 2011. "Identifying shocks in regionally integrated East Asian economies with structural VAR and block exogeneity," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1353-1364.
    3. Adom, Assandé Désiré & Sharma, Subhash C. & Morshed, A.K.M. Mahbub, 2010. "Economic integration in Africa," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 245-253, August.
    4. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Azali, M., 2012. "Is East Asia an optimum currency area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 87-95.
    5. Alessio Volpicella, 2022. "SVARs Identification Through Bounds on the Forecast Error Variance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1291-1301, June.
    6. Eiji Ogawa & Kentaro Kawasaki, 2011. "Monetary Integration in East Asia," Chapters, in: Masahisa Fujita & Ikuo Kuroiwa & Satoru Kumagai (ed.), The Economics of East Asian Integration, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Fratzscher, Marcel & Juvenal, Luciana & Sarno, Lucio, 2010. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 643-658, July.
    8. Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2012. "Neutral Technology Shocks And The Dynamics Of Labor Input: Results From An Agnostic Identification," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(1), pages 235-254, February.
    9. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    10. Yadav, Jayant, 2020. "Flight to Safety in Business cycles," MPRA Paper 104093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Eleonora Granziera & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2018. "Inference for VARs identified with sign restrictions," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(3), pages 1087-1121, November.
    12. Bashar, Omar H.M.N., 2012. "The dynamics of aggregate demand and supply shocks in ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 507-518.
    13. Zhang, Zhaoyong & Sato, Kiyotaka & McAleer, Michael, 2008. "Is Greater China a currency union?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 319-327.
    14. Stefan Eichler & Alexander Karmann, 2011. "Optimum Currency Areas in Emerging Market Regions: Evidence Based on the Symmetry of Economic Shocks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 935-954, November.
    15. Bruno Perdigão, 2019. "“Still" an Agnostic Procedure to Identify Monetary Policy Shocks with Sign Restrictions," Working Papers Series 494, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    16. Nagayasu, Jun, 2010. "Macroeconomic interdependence in East Asia," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 219-227, December.
    17. Britta Gehrke & Fang Yao, 2016. "Persistence and volatility of real exchange rates: the role of supply shocks revisited," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    18. repec:rnp:ppaper:r90221 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Dumrongrittikul, Taya & Anderson, Heather M., 2016. "How do shocks to domestic factors affect real exchange rates of Asian developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 67-85.
    20. Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 185-207.
    21. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Business Cycle Moderation - Good Policies or Good Luck: Evidence and Explanations for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_21, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hst:ghsdps:gd08-042. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tatsuji Makino (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iehitjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.