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Inference for VARs identified with sign restrictions

  • Hyungsik Roger Moon
  • Frank Schorfheide
  • Eleonara Granziera
  • Mihye Lee

There is a fast growing literature that partially identifies structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of a subset of the endogenous variables to a particular structural shock (sign-restricted SVARs). To date, the methods that have been used are only justified from a Bayesian perspective. This paper develops methods of constructing error bands for impulse response functions of sign-restricted SVARs that are valid from a frequentist perspective. The authors also provide a comparison of frequentist and Bayesian error bands in the context of an empirical application — the former can be twice as wide as the latter.

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File URL: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2011/wp11-20.pdf
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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 11-20.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:11-20
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  1. Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Bank of England working papers 272, Bank of England.
  2. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2008. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 14551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
  4. Rosen, Adam M., 2008. "Confidence sets for partially identified parameters that satisfy a finite number of moment inequalities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 107-117, September.
  5. Donald W.K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger, 2007. "Validity of Subsampling and "Plug-in Asymptotic" Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1620, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. C. Baumeister & G. Peersman, 2008. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/515, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  7. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56.
  8. Kilian, Lutz & Murphy, Daniel P, 2009. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7471, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Barry Z. Cynamon & Donald H. Dutkowsky & Barry E. Jones, 2006. "Redefining the Monetary Agggregates: A Clean Sweep," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 661-672, Fall.
  10. Juan F. Rubio-Ram�rez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 665-696.
  11. Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2004. "What Does A Technology Shock Do? A VAR Analysis with Model-based Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 4537, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Victor Chernozhukov & Han Hong & Elie Tamer, 2007. "Estimation and Confidence Regions for Parameter Sets in Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1243-1284, 09.
  13. Evi Pappa, 2009. "The Effects Of Fiscal Shocks On Employment And The Real Wage," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(1), pages 217-244, 02.
  14. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. G. Peersman & R. Straub, 2005. "Technology Shocks and Robust Sign Restrictions in a Euro Area SVAR," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/288, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
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