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Inference for VARs Identified with Sign Restrictions

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  • Hyungsik Roger Moon
  • Frank Schorfheide
  • Eleonora Granziera
  • Mihye Lee

Abstract

There is a fast growing literature that partially identifies structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of a subset of the endogenous variables to a particular structural shock (sign-restricted SVARs). To date, the methods that have been used are only justified from a Bayesian perspective. This paper develops methods of constructing error bands for impulse response functions of sign-restricted SVARs that are valid from a frequentist perspective. We also provide a comparison of frequentist and Bayesian error bands in the context of an empirical application - the former can be twice as wide as the latter.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide & Eleonora Granziera & Mihye Lee, 2011. "Inference for VARs Identified with Sign Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 17140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17140
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    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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