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News shocks and Japanese macroeconomic fluctuations

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  • Ko, Jun-Hyung
  • Miyazawa, Kensuke
  • Vu, Tuan Khai

Abstract

Are the changes in the future technology process, the so-called “news shocks,” the main contributors to the macroeconomic fluctuations in Japan over the past forty years? In this paper, we take two structural vector-auto-regression (SVAR) approaches to answer this question. First, we quantitatively evaluate the relative importance of news shocks among candidate shocks, estimating a structural vector-error–correction model (SVECM). Our estimated results suggest that the contribution of the TFP news shocks is nonnegligible, which is in line with the findings of previous works. Furthermore, we disentangle the source of news shocks by adopting several kinds of restrictions and find that news shocks on investment-specific technology (IST) also have an important effect. Second, to minimize the gap between the SVAR approach and the Bayesian estimation of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we adopt an alternative approach: SVAR with sign restrictions. The SVAR with sign restrictions reconfirms the results that the news shocks are important in explaining the Japanese macroeconomic fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ko, Jun-Hyung & Miyazawa, Kensuke & Vu, Tuan Khai, 2012. "News shocks and Japanese macroeconomic fluctuations," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 292-304.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:24:y:2012:i:4:p:292-304
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2012.05.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    TFP; Investment-specific technology; News shock; SVECM; Sign restriction;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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