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News-driven business cycles in small open economies

Author

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  • Gunes Kamber
  • Konstantinos Theodoridis
  • Christoph Thoenissen

Abstract

The focus of this paper is on news-driven business cycles in small open economies. We make two significant contributions. First, we develop a small open economy model where the presence of financial frictions permits the replication of business cycle co-movements in response to news shocks. Second, we use VAR analysis to identify news shocks using data on four advanced small open economies. We find that expected shocks about the future Total Factor Productivity generate business cycle co-movements in output, hours, consumption and investment. We also find that news shocks are associated with countercyclical current account dynamics. Our findings are robust across a number of alternative identification schemes.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunes Kamber & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Christoph Thoenissen, 2014. "News-driven business cycles in small open economies," CAMA Working Papers 2014-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2014-02
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jimfin:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2017. "How Should News Shocks Be Specified Under Rational Expectations?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2017/7, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    3. Martin Bodenstein & Gunes Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2016. "Commodity prices and labour market dynamics in small open economies," CAMA Working Papers 2016-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Alok Johri & Terry Yip, 2017. "Financial Shocks,Supply-chain Relationships and the Great Trade Collapse," Department of Economics Working Papers 2017-11, McMaster University.
    5. Pavlov, Oscar, 2016. "Can firm entry explain news-driven fluctuations?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 427-434.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    News shocks; business cycles; open economy macroeconomics; financial frictions; VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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