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News and why it is not shocking: The role of micro-foundations

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  • Le, Vo Phuong Mai
  • Meenagh, David
  • Minford, Patrick

Abstract

A number of studies have found that news shocks account for a large part of the aggregate fluctuations of the main macroeconomic variables. We show that when taking rational expectations into consideration there is a limit on the size of the variance of the news shocks, which has not been considered in the literature. We offer an explanation to why this restriction should be imposed and show, with an empirical example from a recent paper, that if you do impose the rational expectations restriction the importance of news is drastically reduced.

Suggested Citation

  • Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2020. "News and why it is not shocking: The role of micro-foundations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:66:y:2020:i:c:s1042443120300834
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2020.101199
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Thomas J. Sargent & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 1021-1026, June.
    2. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2017. "A Monte Carlo procedure for checking identification in DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 202-210.
    3. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2014. "No News in Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1168-1191, December.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Guido Lorenzoni, 2013. "News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 3045-3070, December.
    5. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2011. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 1-29, February.
    6. Kamber, Güneş & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2017. "News-driven business cycles in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 77-89.
    7. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Marco Lippi & Luca Sala, 2017. "Noisy News in Business Cycles," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 122-152, October.
    8. Ryan Chahrour & Kyle Jurado, 2018. "News or Noise? The Missing Link," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1702-1736, July.
    9. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
    10. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2016. "What is the truth about DSGE models? Testing by indirect inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2016/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    11. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    12. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2016. "A note on news about the future: the impact on DSGE models and their VAR representation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2016/11, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    13. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2016. "Monetarism rides again? US monetary policy in a world of Quantitative Easing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 85-102.
    14. Oscar Pavlov & Mark Weder, 2013. "Countercyclical Markups and News-Driven Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(2), pages 371-382, April.
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    16. Eric R. Sims, 2012. "News, Non-Invertibility, and Structural VARs," Advances in Econometrics, in: DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments, pages 81-135, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    17. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2012. "The Quantitative Importance of News Shocks in Estimated DSGE Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1535-1561, December.
    18. Barsky, Robert B. & Sims, Eric R., 2011. "News shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 273-289.
    19. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Kaltenbrunner, Georg, 2009. "Anticipated growth and business cycles in matching models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 309-327, April.
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    21. Sims, Eric, 2016. "What׳s news in News? A cautionary note on using a variance decomposition to assess the quantitative importance of news shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 41-60.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad, Wasim & Kutan, Ali M. & Gupta, Smarth, 2021. "Black swan events and COVID-19 outbreak: Sector level evidence from the US, UK, and European stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 546-557.
    2. Phuong Mai Le, Vo & Matthews, Kent & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Xiao, Zhiguo, 2022. "Regulatory arbitrage, shadow banking and monetary policy in China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    News shocks; DSGE; Rational expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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