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News or Noise? The Missing Link

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  • Ryan Chahrour
  • Kyle Jurado

Abstract

The literature on belief-driven business cycles treats news and noise as distinct representations of agents' beliefs. We prove they are empirically the same. Our result lets us isolate the importance of purely belief-driven fluctuations. Using three prominent estimated models, we show that existing research understates the importance of pure beliefs. We also explain how differences in both economic environment and information structure affect the estimated importance of pure beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Chahrour & Kyle Jurado, 2018. "News or Noise? The Missing Link," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1702-1736, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:108:y:2018:i:7:p:1702-36
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20170792
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1343-1377, June.
    2. Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2012. "What's News in Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2733-2764, November.
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    4. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu‐Chun Susan Yang, 2013. "Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1115-1145, May.
    5. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
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    1. repec:eee:inecon:v:114:y:2018:i:c:p:362-375 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Akıncı, Özge & Chahrour, Ryan, 2018. "Good news is bad news: Leverage cycles and sudden stops," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 362-375.
    3. Joshua Chan & Luca Benati & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2018. "Identifying Noise Shocks," Working Paper Series 41, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Faccini, Renato & Melosi, Leonardo, 2018. "The Role of News about TFP in U.S. Recessions and Booms," Working Paper Series WP-2018-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    5. Ryan Chahrour & Kyle Jurado, 2017. "Recoverability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 935, Boston College Department of Economics.
    6. Chahrour, Ryan & Gaballo, Gaetano, 2017. "Learning from prices: amplication and business fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2053, European Central Bank.
    7. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi, 2012. "Identifying News Shocks with Forecast Data," CAMA Working Papers 2012-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Faccini, Renato & Melosi, Leonardo, 2018. "Pigouvian Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 13370, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Alexandre Kohlhas & Tobias Broer, 2019. "Forecaster (Mis-)Behavior," 2019 Meeting Papers 1171, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Campbell, Jeffrey R. & Ferroni, Filippo & Fisher, Jonas D. M. & Melosi, Leonardo, 2019. "The limits of forward guidance," Working Paper Series WP-2019-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    11. Lorenzo Bretscher & Andrea Tamoni & Aytek Malkhozov, 2019. "News Shocks and Asset Prices," 2019 Meeting Papers 100, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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