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News shocks and business cycles

  • Barsky, Robert B.
  • Sims, Eric R.

This paper proposes and implements a novel structural VAR approach to the identification of news shocks about future technology. The news shock is identified as the shock orthogonal to the innovation in current utilization-adjusted TFP that best explains variation in future TFP. A favorable news shock leads to an increase in consumption and decreases in output, hours, and investment on impact – more suggestive of standard DSGE models than of recent extensions designed to generate news-driven business cycles. Though news shocks account for a significant fraction of output fluctuations at medium frequencies, they contribute little to our understanding of recessions.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 58 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 273-289

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:58:y:2011:i:3:p:273-289
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  1. Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Vector autoregressions and cointegration," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 93-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Miles S. Kimball, 2004. "Are technology improvements contractionary?," Working Paper Series WP-04-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
  4. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  6. Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Guido Lorenzoni & Olivier J. Blanchard, 2009. "News, Noise and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration," 2009 Meeting Papers 99, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  9. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "A, B, C's (and D)'s for Understanding VARs," NBER Technical Working Papers 0308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2008. "What's News in Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 14215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2007. "Are structural VARs with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory?," Staff Report 364, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-53, July.
  13. David Andolfatto & Glenn M. MacDonald, 1998. "Technology Diffusion and Aggregate Dynamics," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 58, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  14. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September.
  15. Martial Dupaigne & Franck Portier & Paul Beaudry, 2007. "The International Propagation of News Shocks," 2007 Meeting Papers 251, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. Christopher Otrok & Andre Kurmann, 2010. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2010 Meeting Papers 72, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  17. Mertens, Elmar, 2010. "Structural shocks and the comovements between output and interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1171-1186, June.
  18. Harald Uhlig, 2004. "Do Technology Shocks Lead to a Fall in Total Hours Worked?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 361-371, 04/05.
  19. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," 2006 Meeting Papers 31, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  21. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," Caepr Working Papers 2008-013, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
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  24. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1343-77, June.
  25. Walentin, Karl, 2009. "Expectation Driven Business Cycles with Limited Enforcement," Working Paper Series 229, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Oct 2011.
  26. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-50, June.
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  28. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
  29. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
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  31. Sims, Christopher A. & Zha, Tao, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(02), pages 231-272, April.
  32. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
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