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When creativity strikes: news shocks and business cycle fluctuations

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  • Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia
  • Hacıoglu Hoke, Sinem

Abstract

We use monthly US utility patent applications to construct an external instrument for identification of technology news shocks in a rich-information VAR. Technology diffuses slowly, and affects total factor productivity in an S-shaped pattern. Responsible for about a tenth of economic fluctuations at business cycle frequencies, the shock elicits a slow, but large and positive response of quantities, and a sluggish contraction in prices, followed by an endogenous easing in the monetary stance. The ensuing economic expansion substantially anticipates any material increase in TFP. Technology news are strongly priced-in in the stock market on impact, but measures of consumers’ expectations take sensibly longer to adjust, consistent with a New-Keynesian framework with nominal rigidities, and featuring informationally constrained agents.

Suggested Citation

  • Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Hacıoglu Hoke, Sinem, 2018. "When creativity strikes: news shocks and business cycle fluctuations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90381, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:90381
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    Cited by:

    1. Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Identification with external instruments in structural VARs under partial invertibility," Sciences Po publications 24, Sciences Po.
    2. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs under Partial Invertibility," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1213, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    technology news shocks; business cycle; identification with external instruments; patents applications.;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital

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