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When Creativity Strikes: News Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations

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  • Bluwstein, Kristina
  • Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem
  • Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia

Abstract

We exploit information in a new dataset of monthly patent applications to construct an instrumental variable for the identification of technology news shocks that relaxes all the identifying assumptions traditionally used in the literature. Our sole requirement is that no structural disturbances affect the US economy via our instrument except for contemporaneous technology news. The instrument recovers news shocks that have no appreciable effect on aggregate productivity on impact, but are a significant driver of its trend component. News shocks prompt a sustained business cycle expansion in anticipation of the future increase in TFP, and are responsible for a sizeable share of economic fluctuations at business cycle frequencies. The stock market prices-in news shocks on impact, but consumer expectations take sensibly longer to adjust, consistent with the predictions of models of information frictions.

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  • Bluwstein, Kristina & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2020. "When Creativity Strikes: News Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 15062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15062
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    Cited by:

    1. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo & Vukotic, Marija, 2019. "Patent-Based News Shocks," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1225, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Holtemöller, Oliver & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Kwak, Boreum, 2020. "Exchange rates and the information channel of monetary policy," IWH Discussion Papers 17/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    3. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Identification with External Instruments in Structual VARs under partial invertibility," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-24, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    4. Claudio, João C. & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2020. "On the international dissemination of technology news shocks," IWH Discussion Papers 25/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    5. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs under Partial Invertibility," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1213, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    6. Pinchetti, Marco, 2020. "What Is Driving The TFP Slowdown? Insights From a Schumpeterian DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 98316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of political risk shocks," Bank of England working papers 841, Bank of England.
    8. Daniela Fantozzi & Alessio Muscarnera, 2021. "A News-based Policy Index for Italy: Expectations and Fiscal Policy," CEIS Research Paper 509, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Mar 2021.
    9. Metiu, Norbert, 2020. "Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies," Discussion Papers 52/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; Information Frictions; Patent applications; SVAR-IV; Technology News Shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital

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