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Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • André Kurmann

    (School of Economics)

  • Eric Sims

    (University of Notre Dame & NBER)

Abstract

This paper documents large revisions in a widely-used series of utilization-adjusted total factor productivity (TFP) by Fernald (2014) and shows that these revisions can materially affect empirical conclusions about the macroeconomic effects of news shocks. We propose an alternative identification that is robust to measurement issues with TFP, including the revisions in Fernald's series. When applied to U.S. data, the shock predicts sustained future productivity growth while simultaneously generating strong impact responses of novel indicators of technological innovation and forward-looking information variables. The shock does, however, not lead to comovement in macroeconomic aggregates as typically associated with business cycle fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • André Kurmann & Eric Sims, 2017. "Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2017-3, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2017_003
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    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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