Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks
This paper documents large revisions in a widely-used series of utilization-adjusted total factor productivity (TFP) by Fernald (2014) and shows that these revisions can materially affect empirical conclusions about the macroeconomic effects of news shocks. We propose an alternative identification that is robust to measurement issues with TFP, including the revisions in Fernald’s series. When applied to U.S. data, the shock predicts sustained future productivity growth while simultaneously generating strong impact responses of novel indicators of technological innovation and forward-looking information variables. The shock does, however, not lead to comovement in macroeconomic aggregates as typically associated with business cycle fluctuations.
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|Date of creation:||Feb 2017|
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- Andr? Kurmann & Elmar Mertens, 2014.
"Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations: Comment,"
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- Christopher Otrok & Andre Kurmann, 2010. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2010 Meeting Papers 72, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- André Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2012. "News shocks and the slope of the term structure of interest rates," Working Papers 2012-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- André Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2010. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cahiers de recherche 1005, CIRPEE.
- Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
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