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Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks

Author

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  • André Kurmann
  • Eric Sims

Abstract

This paper documents large revisions in a widely-used series of utilization-adjusted total factor productivity (TFP) by Fernald (2014) and shows that these revisions can materially affect empirical conclusions about the macroeconomic effects of news shocks. We propose an alternative identification that is robust to measurement issues with TFP, including the revisions in Fernald’s series. When applied to U.S. data, the shock predicts sustained future productivity growth while simultaneously generating strong impact responses of novel indicators of technological innovation and forward-looking information variables. The shock does, however, not lead to comovement in macroeconomic aggregates as typically associated with business cycle fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • André Kurmann & Eric Sims, 2017. "Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks," NBER Working Papers 23142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23142
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andr? Kurmann & Elmar Mertens, 2014. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1439-1445, April.
    2. Andr? Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2612-2632, October.
    3. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, 2017. "Amplification effects of news shocks through uncertainty," 2017 Papers pca1251, Job Market Papers.
    2. repec:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:368-376 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2017. "Evidence on News Shocks under Information Deficiency," MPRA Paper 80850, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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