IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Evidence on News Shocks under Information Deficiency

Listed author(s):
  • Nelimarkka, Jaakko

News shocks about future productivity can be correctly inferred from a conventional VAR model only if information contained in observables is rich enough. This paper examines news shocks by means of a noncausal VAR model that recovers economic shocks from both past and future variation. As noncausality is implied by nonfundamentalness, the model solves the problem of insufficient information per se. By the impulse responses derived from the model, variables react to the anticipated structural shocks, which are identified by exploiting future dependence of investment with respect to productivity. In the U.S. economy, news about improving total factor productivity moves investment and stock prices on impact, but these responses are likely affected by a parallel increase in productivity. The news shock gradually diffuses to productivity and generates smooth reactions of forward-looking variables.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/80850/1/MPRA_paper_80850.pdf
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 80850.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 10 Aug 2017
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80850
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany

Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2459
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-992459
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2012. "What's News in Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2733-2764, November.
  2. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Thomas J. Sargent & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 1021-1026, June.
  3. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 639-669.
  4. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2014. "No News in Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1168-1191, December.
  5. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
  6. Kurmann, André & Sims, Eric, 2017. "Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2017-3, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
  7. Andr? Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2612-2632, October.
  8. Barsky, Robert B. & Sims, Eric R., 2011. "News shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 273-289.
  9. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
  10. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Jennifer E. Roush & Riccardo DiCecio, 2014. "A Flexible Finite-Horizon Alternative to Long-Run Restrictions with an Application to Technology Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 638-647, October.
  11. Ascari, Guido & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2015. "Fat-Tail Distributions And Business-Cycle Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 465-476, March.
  12. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2014. "Sufficient information in structural VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 124-136.
  13. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Lippi, Marco & Sala, Luca, 2013. "Noisy News in Business cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 9601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Vasco Cúrdia & Marco Negro & Daniel L. Greenwald, 2014. "Rare Shocks, Great Recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 1031-1052, November.
  15. Robert B. Barsky & Susanto Basu & Keyoung Lee, 2015. "Whither News Shocks?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 225-264.
    • Robert B. Barsky & Susanto Basu & Keyoung Lee, 2014. "Whither News Shocks?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29, pages 225-264 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
  17. Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1994. "Diffusion of Technical Change and the Decomposition of Output into Trend and Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 19-30.
  18. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu‐Chun Susan Yang, 2013. "Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1115-1145, 05.
  19. Eric Leeper & Todd Walker, 2011. "Information Flows and News Driven Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 55-71, January.
  20. Siddhartha Chib & Srikanth Ramamurthy, 2014. "DSGE Models with Student- t Errors," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1-4), pages 152-171, June.
  21. Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2013. "Noncausal Vector Autoregression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(03), pages 447-481, June.
  22. Harald Uhlig, 2004. "Do Technology Shocks Lead to a Fall in Total Hours Worked?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 361-371, 04/05.
  23. Paul Beaudry & Patrick Fève & Alain Guay & Franck Portier, 2015. "When is Nonfundamentalness in VARs a Real Problem? An Application to News Shocks," NBER Working Papers 21466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2012. "What's News in Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 8984, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80850. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.