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Rare shocks, great recessions

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Abstract

We estimate a DSGE model where rare large shocks can occur, by replacing the commonly used Gaussian assumption with a Student?s t distribution. Results from the Smets and Wouters (2007) model estimated on the usual set of macroeconomic time series over the 1964-2011 period indicate that 1) the Student?s t specification is strongly favored by the data even when we allow for low-frequency variation in the volatility of the shocks and 2) the estimated degrees of freedom are quite low for several shocks that drive U.S. business cycles, implying an important role for rare large shocks. This result holds even if we exclude the Great Recession period from the sample. We also show that inference about low-frequency changes in volatility?and in particular, inference about the magnitude of Great Moderation?is different once we allow for fat tails.

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  • Vasco Curdia & Marco Del Negro & Daniel L. Greenwald, 2012. "Rare shocks, great recessions," Staff Reports 585, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:585
    Note: a published version of this report, see Vasco Cúrdia, Marco Del Negro, and Daniel L. Greenwald, "Rare Shocks, Great Recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics 29, no. 7 (2014): 1032-52.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian analysis; DSGE models; fat tails; stochastic volatility; Great Recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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