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Sources of the Great Moderation: shocks, frictions, or monetary policy?

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We study the sources of the Great Moderation by estimating a variety of medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models that incorporate regime switches in shock variances and the inflation target. The best-fit model?the one with two regimes in shock variances?gives quantitatively different dynamics compared with the benchmark constant-parameter model. Our estimates show that three kinds of shocks accounted for most of the Great Moderation and business-cycle fluctuations: capital depreciation shocks, neutral technology shocks, and wage markup shocks. In contrast to the existing literature, we find that changes in the inflation target or shocks in the investment-specific technology played little role in macroeconomic volatility. Moreover, our estimates indicate considerably fewer nominal rigidities than the literature suggests.

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  • Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Sources of the Great Moderation: shocks, frictions, or monetary policy?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2009-03
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    1. Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Maxym Kryshko & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull & Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis & Frank Schorfheide, 2009. "Methods versus substance: measuring the effects of technology shocks on hours," Staff Report 433, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 101-121, January.
    3. Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor & Schorfheide, Frank & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Kryshko, Maxym & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2012. "Methods versus substance: Measuring the effects of technology shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 826-846.
    4. Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2012. "Neutral technology shocks and employment dynamics: results based on an RBC identification scheme," Bank of England working papers 453, Bank of England.
    5. Parantap Basu & Christoph Thoenissen, 2011. "International business cycles and the relative price of investment goods," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(2), pages 580-606, May.
    6. Francesco Bianchi, 2013. "Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 463-490.
    7. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
    8. Troy Davig & Taeyoung Doh, 2014. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Inflation Persistence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 862-875, December.
    9. Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2009. "Do credit constraints amplify macroeconomic fluctuations?," Working Paper Series 2009-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Christopher L. House & Ana-Maria Mocanu & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2017. "Stimulus Effects of Investment Tax Incentives: Production versus Purchases," NBER Working Papers 23391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Khan, Hashmat & Tsoukalas, John, 2011. "Investment shocks and the comovement problem," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 115-130, January.
    12. Fransesco Furlanetto & Martin Seneca, 2010. "Investment-specific technology shocks and consumption," Economics wp49, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    13. Jambu, Marc-Antoine, 2010. "Has the Globalisation really generated more competition in OECD economies," MPRA Paper 19974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Mohammed Dore & Roelof Makken & Erik Eastman, 2013. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism, Non-residential Fixed Investment and Housing," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(3), pages 215-224, September.
    15. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 1-46.

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