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Comparing DSGE-VAR forecasting models: How big are the differences?

  • Ghent, Andra C.

I generate priors for a vector autoregression (VAR) from a standard real business cycle (RBC) model, an RBC model with capital-adjustment costs and habit formation, and a sticky-price model with an unaccommodating monetary authority. The response of hours worked to a TFP shock differs sharply across these models. I compare the accuracy of forecasts made from each of the resulting dynamic stochastic general equilibrium vector autoregression (DSGE-VAR) models. Despite having different structural characteristics, the DSGE-VARs are comparable in terms of forecasting performance. As in previous work, DSGE-VARs compare favorably with atheoretical VARs.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 864-882

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:33:y:2009:i:4:p:864-882
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