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Comparing Models of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: How Big Are the Differences?

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  • Ghent, Andra

Abstract

I generate priors for a VAR from four competing models of economic fluctuations: a standard RBC model, Fisher’s (2006) investment-specific technology shocks model, an RBC model with capital adjustment costs and habit formation, and a sticky price model with an unaccommodating monetary authority. I compare the accuracy of the forecasts made with each of the resulting VARs. The economic models generate similar forecast errors to one another. However, at horizons of one to two years and greater, the models generally yield superior forecasts to those made using both an unrestricted VAR and a VAR that uses shrinkage from a Minnesota prior.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghent, Andra, 2006. "Comparing Models of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: How Big Are the Differences?," MPRA Paper 180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:180
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/180/1/MPRA_paper_180.pdf
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    Keywords

    Model Evaluation; Priors from DSGE models; Economic Fluctuations; Hours Debate; Business Cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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