IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v28y2004i6p1205-1226.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A method for taking models to the data

Author

Listed:
  • Ireland, Peter N.

Abstract

This paper develops a method for combining the power of a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model with the flexibility of a vector autoregressive time-series model to obtain a hybrid that can be taken directly to the data. It estimates this hybrid model via maximum likelihood and uses the results to address a number of issues concerning the ability of a prototypical real business cycle model to explain movements in aggregate output and employment in the postwar US economy, the stability of the real business cycle model's structural parameters, and the performance of the hybrid model's out-of-sample forecasts.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Ireland, Peter N., 2004. "A method for taking models to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:28:y:2004:i:6:p:1205-1226
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165-1889(03)00080-0
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ireland, Peter N., 2003. "Endogenous money or sticky prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1623-1648, November.
    2. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-442, October.
    3. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454-454, October.
    4. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Win), pages 2-16.
    5. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 63-84, Suppl. De.
    6. Watson, Mark W, 1993. "Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 1011-1041, December.
    7. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    8. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1, October.
    9. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1991. "Real business-cycle theory : Wisdom or whimsy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 607-626, October.
    11. Ireland, Peter N., 2001. "Sticky-price models of the business cycle: Specification and stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 3-18, February.
    12. Ireland, Peter N., 1997. "A small, structural, quarterly model for monetary policy evaluation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 83-108, December.
    13. Ireland, Peter N, 2004. "Money's Role in the Monetary Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 969-983, December.
    14. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995. "Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.
    15. Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April.
    16. McGrattan, Ellen R & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1997. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle with Household Production and Fiscal Policy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 267-290, May.
    17. Ingram, Beth Fisher & Kocherlakota, Narayana R. & Savin, N. E., 1994. "Explaining business cycles: A multiple-shock approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 415-428, December.
    18. Rappoport, Peter & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1989. "Segmented Trends and Non-stationary Time Series," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 168-177, Supplemen.
    19. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    20. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
    21. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    22. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "Validating Monetary DSGE Models through VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 3442, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Jinill Kim, 1998. "Monetary policy in a stochastic equilibrium model with real and nominal rigidities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Bencivenga, Valerie R, 1992. "An Econometric Study of Hours and Output Variation with Preference Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(2), pages 449-471, May.
    25. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
    26. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
    27. McGrattan, Ellen R., 1994. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 573-601, June.
    28. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Robertson, John C., 1998. "Some experiments in constructing a hybrid model for macroeconomic analysis," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 113-142, December.
    29. Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-287, April.
    30. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    31. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    32. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    33. Altug, Sumru, 1989. "Time-to-Build and Aggregate Fluctuations: Some New Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 889-920, November.
    34. Hall, George J., 1996. "Overtime, effort, and the propagation of business cycle shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 139-160, August.
    35. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    36. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Real-Business-Cycle Models and the Forecastable Movements in Output, Hours, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 71-89, March.
    37. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. DeJong, David N. & Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2000. "A Bayesian approach to dynamic macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 203-223, October.
    39. Chow, Gregory C. & Kwan, Yum K., 1998. "How the basic RBC model fails to explain US time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 301-318, April.
    40. Brian Motley, 1997. "Long-run trends in labor supply," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 22-33.
    41. Donald W. K. Andrews & Ray C. Fair, 1988. "Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(4), pages 615-640.
    42. Christiano, Lawrence J., 1988. "Why does inventory investment fluctuate so much?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 247-280.
    43. David N. DeJong & Beth F. Ingram & Charles H. Whiteman, 2000. "Keynesian impulses versus Solow residuals: identifying sources of business cycle fluctuations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 311-329.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Malley, Jim & Woitek, Ulrich, 2010. "Technology shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated hybrid RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1214-1232, July.
    2. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2007. "Methods to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2599-2636, August.
    3. Marc P. Giannoni & Jean Boivin, 2005. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 431, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Lee, Jiho, 2012. "Are structural parameters of DSGE models stable in Korea?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 50-59.
    5. Özer Karagedikli & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "RBCs AND DSGEs: THE COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY AND EVIDENCE," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 113-136, February.
    6. Eric Schaling & Guangling Dave Liu & Rangan Gupta, 2007. "Forecasting the South African Economy: A DSGE-VAR Approach," Working Papers 051, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    7. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2003. "Maximum likelihood in the frequency domain: the importance of time-to-plan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 789-815, May.
    8. Bongers, Anelí & Molinari, Benedetto & Torres, José L., 2022. "Computers, Programming and Dynamic General Equilibrium Macroeconomic Modeling," MPRA Paper 112505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Zanetti, Francesco, 2008. "Labor and investment frictions in a real business cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3294-3314, October.
    10. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    11. Smith, Gregor W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1997. "Real business-cycle realizations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 243-280, December.
    12. Ireland, Peter N., 2001. "Technology shocks and the business cycle: On empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 703-719, May.
    13. Bouakez, Hafedh & Cardia, Emanuela & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2005. "Habit formation and the persistence of monetary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1073-1088, September.
    14. Kevin Moran & Veronika Dolar, 2002. "Estimated DGE Models and Forecasting Accuracy: A Preliminary Investigation with Canadian Data," Staff Working Papers 02-18, Bank of Canada.
    15. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "How Sticky Is Sticky Enough? A Distributional and Impulse Response Analysis of New Keynesian DSGE Models. Extended Working Paper Version," Departmental Working Papers 200612, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    16. Otrok, Christopher, 2001. "On measuring the welfare cost of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-92, February.
    17. Gonzalo Fernández-de-Córdoba & José Torres, 2011. "Forecasting the Spanish economy with an augmented VAR–DSGE model," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 379-399, September.
    18. Lawrence J. Christiano & Robert J. Vigfusson, 1999. "Maximum Likelihood in the Frequency Domain: A Time to Build Example," NBER Working Papers 7027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Johri, Alok & Letendre, Marc-Andre, 2007. "What do `residuals' from first-order conditions reveal about DGE models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2744-2773, August.
    20. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:28:y:2004:i:6:p:1205-1226. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.