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Forecasting the South African Economy: A DSGE-VAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Guangling (Dave) Liu

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Rangan Gupta

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Eric Schaling

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

This paper develops an estimable hybrid model that combines the theoretical rigor of a micro-founded DSGE model with the flexibility of an atheoretical VAR model. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood technique based on quarterly data on real Gross National Product (GNP), consumption, investment and hours worked, for the South African economy, over the period of 1970:1 to 2000:4. Based on a recursive estimation using the Kalman filter algorithm, the out-of-sample forecasts from the hybrid model are then compared with the forecasts generated from the Classical and Bayesian variants of the VAR for the period 2001:1-2005:4. The results indicate that, in general, the estimated hybrid DSGE model outperforms the Classical VAR, but not the Bayesian VARs in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performances.

Suggested Citation

  • Guangling (Dave) Liu & Rangan Gupta & Eric Schaling, 2007. "Forecasting the South African Economy: A DSGE-VAR Approach," Working Papers 200724, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:200724
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rangan Gupta, 2006. "FORECASTING THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY WITH VARs AND VECMs," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(4), pages 611-628, December.
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    15. Guangling (dave Liu & Rangan Gupta, 2007. "A Small-Scale Dsge Model For Forecasting The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 179-193, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2010. "Predicting Downturns in the US Housing Market: A Bayesian Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 294-319, October.
    2. Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2008. "Spatial Bayesian Methods Of Forecasting House Prices In Six Metropolitan Areas Of South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(2), pages 298-313, June.
    3. repec:eee:ecmode:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE Model; VAR and BVAR Model; Forecast Accuracy; DSGE Forecasts; VAR Forecasts; BVAR Forecasts.;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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