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A method for taking models to the data

  • Peter N. Ireland

This paper develops a method for combining the power of a dynamic, stochastic, general-equilibrium model with the flexibility of a vector autoregressive time-series model to obtain a hybrid that can be taken directly to the data.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 9903.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:9903
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  1. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Richard Rogerson, 2010. "Indivisible Labor, Lotteries and Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 250, David K. Levine.
  3. Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Measures of fit for calibrated models," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
  5. Peter N. Ireland, 2001. "Endogenous Money or Sticky Prices?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 499, Boston College Department of Economics.
  6. Rappoport, Peter & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1989. "Segmented Trends and Non-stationary Time Series," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 168-77, Supplemen.
  7. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ireland, Peter N., 2001. "Sticky-price models of the business cycle: Specification and stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 3-18, February.
  9. Peter N. Ireland, 2001. "Money's Role in the Monetary Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 8115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Robertson, John C., 1998. "Some experiments in constructing a hybrid model for macroeconomic analysis," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 113-142, December.
  11. Ellen R. McGrattan, 1991. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 37, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April.
  14. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  15. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  16. Chow, Gregory C. & Kwan, Yum K., 1998. "How the basic RBC model fails to explain US time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 301-318, April.
  17. DeJong, David N. & Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2000. "A Bayesian approach to dynamic macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 203-223, October.
  18. Sumru Altug, 1986. "Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence," Working Papers 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  19. McGrattan, Ellen R & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1997. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle with Household Production and Fiscal Policy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 267-90, May.
  20. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Output dynamics in real business cycle models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  21. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  22. Ingram, B.F. & Kocherlakota, N.R. & Savin, N.E., 1992. "Explaining Business Cycles : A Multiple Shock Approach," Working Papers 92-09, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  23. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454, October.
  24. Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Real business cycle theory: wisdom or whimsy?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  25. Donald W. K. Andrews & Ray C. Fair, 1988. "Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(4), pages 615-640.
  26. Bencivenga, Valerie R, 1992. "An Econometric Study of Hours and Output Variation with Preference Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(2), pages 449-71, May.
  27. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1984. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Working Papers 1392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Jinill Kim, 1998. "Monetary policy in a stochastic equilibrium model with real and nominal rigidities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  29. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "Validating Monetary DSGE Models through VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 3442, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S63-84, Suppl. De.
  31. Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-87, April.
  32. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Real-Business-Cycle Models and the Forecastable Movements in Output, Hours, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 71-89, March.
  33. Christiano, Lawrence J., 1988. "Why does inventory investment fluctuate so much?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 247-280.
  34. Ireland, Peter N., 1997. "A small, structural, quarterly model for monetary policy evaluation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 83-108, December.
  35. Hall, George J., 1996. "Overtime, effort, and the propagation of business cycle shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 139-160, August.
  36. David N. DeJong & Beth F. Ingram & Charles H. Whiteman, 2000. "Keynesian impulses versus Solow residuals: identifying sources of business cycle fluctuations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 311-329.
  37. Gary Hansen, 2010. "Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 233, David K. Levine.
  38. Brian Motley, 1997. "Long-run trends in labor supply," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 22-33.
  39. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
  40. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  41. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  42. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
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