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Validating Monetary DSGE Models through VARs

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  • Canova, Fabio

Abstract

Robust sign restrictions derived from calibrated DSGE models are used to identify structual shocks in the actual data. The dynamic behaviour of selected variables in response to these shocks is employed to measure, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the economic discrepancy between the model and the data. We design an algorithm that allows increasingly demanding diagnostics on the model, room for respecification at each stage of the process and comparison across models. We show that neither a limited participation model, nor a sticky price monopolistic-competitive model, fully accounts for the dynamics of a small set of macro variables. Furthermore simple alterations of the former fail to improve the match with the data, even in qualitative sense.

Suggested Citation

  • Canova, Fabio, 2002. "Validating Monetary DSGE Models through VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 3442, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3442
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu‐Chun Susan Yang, 2013. "Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1115-1145, May.
    2. Ireland, Peter N., 2004. "A method for taking models to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March.
    3. Abbate, Angela & Thaler, Dominik, 2014. "Monetary policy effects on bank risk taking," Economics Working Papers ECO2014/07, European University Institute.
    4. Cantelmo, Alessandro & Melina, Giovanni, 2018. "Monetary policy and the relative price of durable goods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-48.
    5. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2016. "VAR Information and the Empirical Validation of DSGE Models," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 119, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    6. Gonzalo Fernández-de-Córdoba & José Torres, 2011. "Forecasting the Spanish economy with an augmented VAR–DSGE model," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 379-399, September.
    7. Jagjit S. Chadha & Luisa Corrado & Qi Sun, 2008. "Money, Prices and Liquidity Effects: Separating Demand from Supply," Studies in Economics 0817, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    8. Carvalho, Diogo Baerlocher & Silva, Marcelo Eduardo Alves da & Silva, Igor Ézio Maciel, 2013. "Efeitos dos choques fiscais sobre o mercado de trabalho brasileiro," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(2), June.
    9. Evi Pappa, 2009. "The effects of fiscal expansions: an international comparison," Working Papers 409, Barcelona School of Economics.
    10. Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2007. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 512-549, March.
    11. Gert Peersman & Roland Straub, 2009. "Technology Shocks And Robust Sign Restrictions In A Euro Area Svar," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 727-750, August.
    12. Gregor B urle, 2008. "Priors from DSGE Models for Dynamic Factor Analysis," Diskussionsschriften dp0803, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
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    15. G. Peersman & R. Straub, 2006. "Putting the New Keynesian Model to a Test," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/375, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    16. Qureshi, Irfan A., 2021. "The Role Of Money In Federal Reserve Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(8), pages 2037-2057, December.
    17. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zanetti, Francesco, 2012. "Neutral technology shocks and employment dynamics: results based on an RBC identification scheme," Bank of England working papers 453, Bank of England.
    18. Stefano Neri, 2004. "Monetary policy and stock prices: theory and evidence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 513, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei NetŠunajev, 2014. "Disentangling Demand And Supply Shocks In The Crude Oil Market: How To Check Sign Restrictions In Structural Vars," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 479-496, April.
    20. Max Gillman & Mark N Harris & Michal Kejak, 2007. "The Interaction of Inflation and Financial Development with Endogenous Growth," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    21. Shesadri Banerjee & M S Mohanty, 2021. "US monetary policy and the financial channel of the exchange rate: evidence from India," BIS Working Papers 945, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic general equilibrium models; Vars; Sign restrictions; Model evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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