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Testing calibrated general equilibrium models

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  • Fabio Canova
  • Eva Ortega

Abstract

This paper illustrates the philosophy which forms the basis of calibration exercises in general equilibrium macroeconomic models and the details of the procedure, the advantages and the disadvantages of the approach, with particular reference to the issue of testing ``false'' economic models. We provide an overview of the most recent simulation--based approaches to the testing problem and compare them to standard econometric methods used to test the fit of non--linear dynamic general equilibrium models. We illustrate how simulation--based techniques can be used to formally evaluate the fit of a calibrated model to the data and obtain ideas on how to improve the model design using a standard problem in the international real business cycle literature, i.e. whether a model with complete financial markets and no restrictions to capital mobility is able to reproduce the second order properties of aggregate saving and aggregate investment in an open economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Canova & Eva Ortega, 1996. "Testing calibrated general equilibrium models," Economics Working Papers 166, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:166
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    2. Alfonso Novales, 2000. "The role of simulation methods in Macroeconomics," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 155-181.
    3. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Moment estimation in Auerbach-Kotlikoff models: How well do they match the data?," MEA discussion paper series 05093, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "A Simple DGE Model for Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 2007/197, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Jagjit Chadha & Qi Sun, 2010. "Productivity, Preferences and UIP Deviations in an Open Economy Business Cycle Model," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 365-391, July.
    6. Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti & Joseph Pearlman & Richard Pierse, 2007. "Growth and Welfare Effects of East-West European Migration," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1507, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    7. Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti & Joseph Pearlman & Richard Pierse, 2010. "Growth And Welfare Effects Of World Migration," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(5), pages 615-643, November.
    8. Welz, Peter, 2006. "Assessing predetermined expectations in the standard sticky-price model: a Bayesian approach," Working Paper Series 621, European Central Bank.
    9. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Christoph Thoenissen, 2005. "Money and Monetary Policy in Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," CDMA Working Paper Series 200511, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, revised 15 Feb 2007.
    10. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Christoph Thoenissen, 2007. "Money and Monetary Policy in DSGE Models," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 78, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    11. Marco Maffezzoli, 2000. "Human Capital and International Real Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 137-165, January.
    12. Matteo Manera & Bruno Sitzia, 2005. "Empirical factor demands and flexible functional forms: a bayesian approach," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 57-75.
    13. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Peter Welz, 2008. "Robust Inflation-Targeting Rules and the Gains from International Policy Coordination," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0208, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    14. Shikher, Serge, 2011. "Capital, technology, and specialization in the neoclassical model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 229-242, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Calibration; simulation; evaluation; saving and investment correlations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

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