Capital, technology, and specialization in the neoclassical model

The paper studies the effects of technology and capital stock on trade using simulation. For this purpose, the paper develops and evaluates a model that is distinguished by its use of the Eaton-Kortum framework to explain intra-industry trade instead of the usual Armington assumption. It is found that the magnitudes and in many cases signs of the effects of capital stock and technology on specialization are very country-specific. This implies that the regression studies that estimate cross-country average effects have limited value. Looking at the volume of trade, the paper finds that capital endowments and industry-level comparative advantages have little effect on the volume of trade -- the reduced inter-industry trade between more similar countries is compensated by increased intra-industry trade. Producer heterogeneity, on the other hand, has a significant effect on the volume of trade. The paper evaluates the accuracy of the model's forecasts by performing historical simulations for 1975-95, with the results showing that the model's predictions are accurate.