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Sensitivity Analysis and Model Evaluation in Simulated Dynamic General Equilibrium Economies

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  • Canova, Fabio

Abstract

This paper describes a Monte Carlo procedure to evaluate dynamic nonlinear general equilibrium macro models. The procedure makes the choice of parameters and the evaluation of the model less subjective than standard calibration techniques, it provides more general restrictions than estimation by simulation approaches, and provides a way to conduct global sensitivity analysis for reasonable perturbations of the parameters. As an illustration, the technique is applied to three examples involving different models and statistics. Copyright 1995 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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  • Canova, Fabio, 1995. "Sensitivity Analysis and Model Evaluation in Simulated Dynamic General Equilibrium Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(2), pages 477-501, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:36:y:1995:i:2:p:477-501
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Fève & Jean‐Guillaume Sahuc, 2017. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 704-718, April.
    2. Pannell, David J., 1997. "Sensitivity analysis of normative economic models: theoretical framework and practical strategies," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(2), May.
    3. Judd, Kenneth L., 1997. "Computational economics and economic theory: Substitutes or complements?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 907-942, June.
    4. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
    5. Dai, Darong, 2011. "Modeling the minimum time needed to economic maturity," MPRA Paper 40583, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Aug 2012.
    6. Canova, Fabio & Paustian, Matthias, 2011. "Business cycle measurement with some theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 345-361.
    7. Nason, James M. & Rogers, John H., 2006. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 159-187, January.
    8. Alfonso Novales, 2000. "The role of simulation methods in Macroeconomics," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, pages 155-181.
    9. Boileau, Martin, 2002. "Trade in capital goods and investment-specific technical change," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 963-984, June.
    10. Cozzi, Marco, 2014. "Equilibrium Heterogeneous-Agent models as measurement tools: Some Monte Carlo evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 208-226.
    11. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2010. "DSGE Model Validation in a Bayesian Framework: an Assessment," MPRA Paper 24509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Alessia Paccagnini, 2012. "Comparing Hybrid DSGE Models," Working Papers 228, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2012.
    13. Vo Phuong Mai Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2016. "Testing Macro Models by Indirect Inference: A Survey for Users," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 1-38.
    14. DeJong, David N. & Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2000. "A Bayesian approach to dynamic macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 203-223, October.
    15. Marco Percoco & Geoffrey Hewings & Lanfranco Senn, 2006. "Structural change decomposition through a global sensitivity analysis of input-output models," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 115-131.
    16. Fabio Canova & Eva Ortega, 1996. "Testing calibrated general equilibrium models," Economics Working Papers 166, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    17. Marco Maffezzoli, 2000. "Human Capital and International Real Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 137-165, January.
    18. Fabio Canova, 2007. "How much structure in empirical models?," Economics Working Papers 1054, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    19. Silvia Pasqua, 2005. "Gender Bias in Parental Investments in Children’s Education: A Theoretical Analysis," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 291-314, September.
    20. Debby Lanser & Henk Kranendonk, 2008. "Investigating uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts by stochastic simulation," CPB Discussion Paper 112, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    21. Roland Meeks, 2006. "Credit Shocks and Cycles: a Bayesian Calibration Approach," Economics Papers 2006-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    22. Menner, Martin, 2006. "Monetary propagation in search-theoretic monetary models," UC3M Working papers. Economics we066426, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    23. Ana-Maria SÃNDICÃ, 2015. "The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Ensuring Macroeconomic Stability in Romania," Economia. Seria Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(1), pages 110-124, June.
    24. Anindya Biswas & Biswajit Mandal, 2016. "Estimating Preference Parameters From Stock Returns Using Simulated Method Of Moments," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-13, March.
    25. Daniel Harenberg & Stefano Marelli & Bruno Sudret & Viktor Winschel, 2017. "Uncertainty Quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis for Economic Models," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 17/265, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.

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