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Calibration as Estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Allan W. Gregory
  • Gregor W. Smith

Abstract

One aspect of calibration in macroeconomics is the notion that free parameters of models should be chosen by matching certain moments of the simulated models with those of actual data. We formally examine this notion by treating the process of calibration as an econometric estimator. A numerical version of the Mehra-Prescott (1985) economy is the setting for an evaluation of calibration estimators via Monte Carlo methods. While these estimators sometimes have reasonable finite-sample properties they are not robust to mistakes in setting non-free parameters. In contrast, generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators have satisfactory finite-sample properties, quick convergence, and informational requirements less stringent than those of consistent calibration estimators. In dynamic equilibrium models in which GMM is infeasible we offer some suggestion for improving estimates based on calibration methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan W. Gregory & Gregor W. Smith, 1987. "Calibration as Estimation," Working Paper 700, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:700
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    Cited by:

    1. Cozzi, Marco, 2014. "Equilibrium Heterogeneous-Agent models as measurement tools: Some Monte Carlo evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 208-226.
    2. Duo Qin, 2010. "Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics," Working Papers 669, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Moment estimation in Auerbach-Kotlikoff models: How well do they match the data?," MEA discussion paper series 05093, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    4. Steve Ambler, 1991. "Les modèles du cycle économique face à la corrélation productivité-emploi," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 67(4), pages 532-548.
    5. Fabio Canova & Eva Ortega, 1996. "Testing calibrated general equilibrium models," Economics Working Papers 166, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    6. Touhami Abdelkhalek & Jean-Marie Dufour, 1998. "Statistical Inference For Computable General Equilibrium Models, With Application To A Model Of The Moroccan Economy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 520-534, November.
    7. Francis X. Diebold & Lee E. Ohanian & Jeremy Berkowitz, 1998. "Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: A Framework for Comparing Models and Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(3), pages 433-451.
    8. Aliaga Miranda, Augusto, 2020. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy with financial frictions: A Bayesian approach," Dynare Working Papers 62, CEPREMAP.
    9. Jorgensen, Bjorn N. & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole ae, 1996. "An arbitrage free trilateral target zone model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 117-134, February.
    10. Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R. & Davidson, James & Meenagh, David, 2010. "Why crises happen - nonstationary macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 8157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Cox, Dennis D. & Park, Jeong-Soo & Singer, Clifford E., 2001. "A statistical method for tuning a computer code to a data base," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 77-92, July.
    12. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "Validating Monetary DSGE Models through VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 3442, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Fan, Jingwen & Minford, Patrick, 2009. "Can the Fiscal Theory of the price level explain UK inflation in the 1970s?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/26, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Mar 2011.
    14. Dridi, Ramdan & Guay, Alain & Renault, Eric, 2007. "Indirect inference and calibration of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 397-430, February.
    15. Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana & James M. Nason, 2013. "Bayesian estimation of DSGE models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 21, pages 486-512, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Aliaga, Augusto, 2020. "Reglas de política monetaria para una economía abierta con fricciones financieras: Un enfoque Bayesiano [Monetary policy rules for an open economy with financial frictions: A Bayesian approach]," MPRA Paper 100604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2011. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2078-2104.
    18. Smith, Gregor W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1997. "Real business-cycle realizations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 243-280, December.
    19. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2010. "The 'Puzzles' methodology: En route to Indirect Inference?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1417-1428, November.

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